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Disgrace
It was a common theme of discussion during the India v England ODI series that the grounds were uncommonly empty. (Common during the rare passages of play in which England were not collapsing, anyway.) Various reasons were mooted, such as too much exposure to cricket and the big names not playing for India. (And apparently a number of Indian ‘supporters’ only like to watch India bat.) I wasn’t too surprised then, to hear that the crowds for the first test against the West Indies were also small. The West Indies are a smaller draw than England now, and the Indian public prefer limited overs matches anyway. Still, the big guns are back for India and it’s a chance for them to recover some face after their humiliation in England so shouldn’t a lot of people show up?
Apparently not, and this account goes a long way to explaining why. No country is immune to jobsworths and bureaucracy of course, least of all England, but compare that attitude to the one displayed by those in charge of last day ticket sales at Lord’s over the summer. We saw this same sort of farce at the World Cup last year; England’s match against India was moved at the last minute without regard to the accommodations already booked by the travelling supporters, the ticket sales mayhem for the same match and the rather amusing story of Geoffrey Boycott summoning a general to prevent his sandwiches from being confiscated. (In fact, Adam Mountford’s blog from the World Cup is basically a day by day tale of incompetence.) The fact that any international ground can treat its fans in such a manner is a disgrace and must be considered as part of the reason for poor attendances.
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India are almost there
The West Indies did not collapse as badly as they might have. They got to 180 and have thus set India 276 to win. It’s a fairly daunting total, but India have gone about it well so far. Sehwag hit his usual run-a-ball fifty before departing to a daft shot and Dravid and Tendulkar are both in the runs. At close they are 152-2 and things look pretty dire for the West Indies.
India need another 124 with eight wickets in hand, but if the Windies can get either Dravid or Tendulkar early on (a big ‘if’ especially for Dravid) they are still in with a shout. The only Indian batsman after Dravid who is in any kind of form is Dhoni, who made a duck in the first innings. It would take an epic collapse by India to lose this test, but it is not beyond the realm of possibility.
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Minimum score?
It’s just gone lunchtime in Delhi and the West Indies are struggling with the score on 109-7 in their second innings. It’s a lead of 204, but even that is mostly down to some brilliant counterattacking from Chanderpaul. Still, they need more. At the start of the day I thought they would want about 250 to be favourites. Obviously that is well out of the question now, but they could theoretically defend a lower total than that. The pitch is slow and will take a lot of turn, and the Indian batsmen haven’t posted a good score in a Test match since scoring 364 in the first innings at Cape Town in January. Dravid is in the sort of form that he could almost chase down 200 by himself though. Obviously the Indian batsman play spin well, but they will have to keep their heads; something only Dravid did in the first innings.
All things considered, I can’t see the West Indies defending less than about 250. Certainly anything under 225 is very gettable for India. The West Indies need Chanderpaul to stay in as long as possible. For me, the magic number is 154. Once they get to that, India will have to chase 250 to win and that is never straightforward. On paper they have the batsmen to do it, but those batsmen have misfired all year. The West Indies bowlers have already performed very well to give them a vital first innings lead, but they’ll have to do so again to turn that into a victory.
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There were 30 better choices
My attention was elsewhere when England announced the squad for the upcoming friendlies against Spain and Sweden, but I was paying attention today when the FA announced the accommodations for Euro 2012. (And I got caught up on on the squad too.) They will be based in a five star, £177/night hotel in Poland’s mediaeval capitol. Which sounds nice, but it is the 31st best hotel in the city and the reviews are mixed. (From the pictures, it doesn’t look much nicer than the $50/night hotel in which I stayed last time I was on holiday, albeit with more amenities.) Ostensibly, this is to try to strike a balance between the decadence of Baden-Baden in ’06 and the remoteness of Rustenburg last summer, but it looks more like an attempt to pre-emptively punish the players for a poor tournament. The 31st best hotel in a city 150 miles away from the nearest match is not a vote of confidence, but they may only need to stay for eight days. Furthermore, they will be training on a ground that is the very picture of Eastern European disrepair. (The Guardian have a lovely gallery.) Krakow is, by all accounts, a lovely city, but the choices of hotel and ground therein are odd ones.
We’ll be a bit closer to knowing the team that will occupy the hotel after next week’s friendlies. Capello has chosen an experimental squad to face the reigning champions, with four uncapped players. Terry is still in the squad, though, despite the ongoing investigation into alleged racist remarks. Lampard is expected to captain the side, however. Andy Carroll is not in the side, unsurprisingly given his poor start to the season. It is a squad mostly of players hoping to force their way into the Euro 2012 squad with just a few old hands in the mix. I expect them to struggle against Spain. The full squad is here. I’d be interested to see if England play someone besides Hart in goal. There is no clear second choice keeper at the moment, and Robert Green showed us last year how bad things could be if Hart goes down with and injury before the tournament.
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Royals trade Cabrera
As sick as I am of constantly reshuffling the outfield, it looks like it’s probably a good deal. The Royals got left handed pitchers Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo from San Francisco in return and it’s little secret that we badly need pitching. Sanchez’s career numbers aren’t spectacular, an ERA of 4.26 in the National League, but he had a strong 2010 and averages better than a strikeout per inning pitched over his career. He struggled a bit more in 2011, and was hampered by an injury, but he looks like a good addition to the rotation. He also ensures that the Royals will have at least one left handed starter, even if Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis do not return to KC. I don’t know a lot about Verdugo, but he is seen as a relief prospect despite starting at the Giants AA affiliate this year. He will be in Omaha with the Royals.
Cabrera’s departure leaves a hole in centre field, presumably to be filled by Lorenzo Cain on an every day basis. Cain is the main result of the Greinke deal (I view Escobar as having come over for Betancourt in a like-for-like swap) and it will be very nice to see him get a regular chance to start in the major leagues next season. He had a good year with Omaha last year and his .273 as a September call up. It may also give Jarrod Dyson and Mitch Maier more time in the outfield as Cain will probably get more days off than Cabrera did. It’s obviously far too early to say what the team might look like in April, but I think this is a step in the right direction.
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Game on!
The West Indies managed to scrape past 300 this morning before sensationally bowling out India for just 209. Forget what I said about the Windies needing runs on the board to cope with India’s powerful middle order; the Indians look like they’re still in England! They were fortunate to start well. The openers put on 89, but the opening stand could have been broken long before it was; two edges fell short of the slips, one was dropped and Sehwag was bowled off a no-ball. This was evened out somewhat, as the first wicket was actually a bit unfortunate; Gambhir was run out backing up. After that wicket fell, however, the rest fell in a rush. Only Dravid (of course) resisted with the entire middle and lower order falling away cheaply.
India probably scored about what they deserved to score. Their strokeplay was as bad as it was in England four months ago. Sehwag played with his usual rashness and was fortunate to get to fifty, whilst Tendulkar, Laxman and Yuvraj Singh all flashed at wide deliveries and made just 31 between them. The Windies bowled decently and they maintained an attacking line, but India must now have some serious concerns about their batting. To fail in bowling conditions against the best attack in the world is one thing; to fail on a subcontinent pitch against a second rate attack is quite another.
As mentioned yesterday, India’s bowling looks a bit short as well. Today they opened the bowling with their two spinners! To be fair to Dhoni, it worked as they each picked up an early wicket, but what does it say about (and to) one’s seamers when neither of them can be trusted to open the bowling at a crucial period? India may yet win this match; it is doubtful that they will play so poorly when they come to bat again and they may not have too many to chase. Some in India must hope that they lose though. This is now a side with serious deficiencies and an overhaul looks increasingly needed. Very often the Indian board have used minor results to paper over the cracks in their side. If they lose to the West Indies, however, they may not be able to pretend all is well. A loss may be the best thing for India.
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Last day of the series
The Pakistan v Sri Lanka series is shaping up for an exciting finish. Sri Lanka are 164-5 at stumps on the fourth day. (They ought to be six down, but a run out in the 52nd over was not given by the Third Umpire in odd circumstances.) Sri Lanka’s lead is 237 and they don’t have a lot of batting left. Sri Lanka will need at least fifty more runs to set up a declaration, but they won’t be able to score them very quickly with the tail. If Sri Lanka can set Pakistan 300 to win there should be about two sessions left and a draw would be the most likely result. Sri Lanka would probably want more than that, but they have to win the match to salvage a draw in the series. It makes for an interesting decision for Dilshan. I doubt that he will want to give Pakistan much less than 300 to chase, but anything more makes it very, very hard to force a victory. Sri Lanka may be able to get away with a more aggressive declaration since Pakistan have little to gain by chasing victory. An overnight declaration would be a statement of intent and make probably ensure some sort of positive result, albeit most likely a Pakistan victory. I would like to see Dilshan take that risk, since Sri Lanka have little to gain from a draw, but I don’t think that’s likely. Unfortunately I think Dilshan will probably bat deep and take the 0-1 defeat.
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Indians v Windians
The West Indies have made the most of a mostly poor performance on the first day at Delhi, reaching stumps on 256-5. The West Indies won the toss and batted, with India handing caps to a pair of spinners, Pragyan Ojha and Ravichandran Ashwin. The Windies didn’t start well, slipping to 45-2, but a solid 63 from opener Kraigg Brathwaite kept the innings together and an unbeaten 111 from Shivnarine Chanderpaul ensured they weren’t embarrassed.
I say the Windies made the most of a poor performance because only two of their batsmen passed 20 (Carlton Baugh is 19 not out overnight). That said, the Indian bowling attack did not look at it’s best. They only played two seamers, neither of whom looked particularly incisive. All five of the wickets went to the two debutant spinners, which looks more like a result of the West Indian batmen not having experience playing spin on the subcontinent. The fact that Chanderpaul looked untroubled for his century bears this out. He is an excellent player of spin, and unless the Indian bowlers improve he could be in for a very prolific series. He will need support though. He had an incredible series in England in 2007, but the Windies still lost 0-3. It’s not clear from where that support may come however and with the Indian top order back to full strength the West Indies will have to come up with something to stand a chance.
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Why can’t the Reds win at home?
Liverpool drew at home once again today, this time a goalless affair against Swansea. It is the fourth draw in six home matches and the third on the trot. This one was slightly different to the first three. In those first three draws we scored first before conceding a late equaliser and being unable to find an even later winner. (The two home wins followed similar patters, it’s worth noting.) This time, however, we nearly scored early before nearly conceding late and being unable to find and even later winner. Liverpool’s failure to turn pressure and chances into goals is starting to become an unwelcome staple of home matches. The Reds actually have nine points from five matches away from Anfield (plus all three League Cup wins) and ten points from six matches at home.
It’s late enough in the season now that it looks like a serious problem instead of just an early season fluke and it begs the question of why. Statistically, Liverpool play better at home than away (the Guardian have the season’s averages in several categories) but as mentioned above, we have fewer points per match at home. It’s not clear why this is, although Liverpool have clearly had a more difficult time converting opportunities into goals at home. Part of the problem has been the profligacy of Suarez and Carroll. Both are very talented, and Suarez in particular has created chances from absolutely nowhere time and time again, but both he and Carroll have conversion rates under ten per cent. This has been a feature both at and away from Anfield, but away from home Liverpool have been able to come up with late goals more often than they have at home. We did so at Arsenal, Everton and in the League Cup tie at Stoke (though we failed to do so in the league match at Stoke). By contrast, we are yet to score a late winner at home this season.
To be fair, the last two home matches have featured some spectacular saves by the visiting keepers to deny the Reds, but there have not been a shortage of outright misses either. (Of course I should point out that I’d be hard pressed to hit a ten metre wide target from ten metres out, but I am not a professional so I have an excuse.) This may, however, still be the main reason for Liverpool coming up short. The wins at home have been against Bolton Wanderers (19th) and Wolves (17th) whilst the three most recent draws were against Manchester United (2nd), Norwich City (9th), and Swansea City (10th). This would at least explain the dip in home form as a quirk of the schedule, though it’s still a problem; for the Reds to have any hope of being in Europe next year we must be able to beat mid-table sides at home. Finding a way to improve the Red’s goals to chances ratio must be Kenny’s main focus over the international break and hopefully that will cause everything else to fall into place.
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Heartbreak
Not for me, mind, for Zimbabwe. My prediction of a heavy New Zealand victory looked good after the Kiwis took a big first innings lead. Vettori took five and Zimbabwe were bowled out for only 313. From a strong position, however, the Kiwis collapsed to 36-3 in their first innings and eventually declared on 252-8. I expect they will have wanted to lose fewer wickets, but it still set Zimbabwe a 366 to win, which looked like too much. New Zealand looked on top at stumps on day four, with Zimbabwe 61-2.
Zimbabwe played very well on the final day, however and needed just 101 more to win when the fourth wicket fell. That wicket was Taylor, however, who had scored 117 and put on over 100 with Taibu. Taibu, however, could not carry on to give his side a win. He got to 63, but with Vettori turning the ball out of the rough Taibu played a rash sweep and miscued it straight to midwicket. It was not the best of shots, and it put New Zealand on top. Zimbabwe fought and fought though. Ncube came in up the order (he batted at eleven in the first innings) and hit Vettori for a big six over midwicket. Zimbabwe just couldn’t quite do enough, however, and the superiority of the Kiwi bowlers finally started to tell and the rest of the tail collapsed. Zimbabwe were bowled out for 331 and lost by 34 runs.
Despite the loss, however, Zimbabwe should take heart from their performance. It’s never easy to get more than 300 in the fourth innings of a match, especially against a spinner of the quality of Vettori. New Zealand are certainly a better side on paper. They ought to have won, especially after taking a first innings lead of over 100 runs. The fact that Zimbabwe lost after being briefly 265-3 will be heartbreaking.
New Zealand, similarly, will have some worries after this match. They’re still a reasonably good ODI side, but the Test side have been slipping badly recently. They very seldom play Test matches anymore and they look a bit out of practise. They have two Test against Australia in December and they will definitely need to improve. They looked a bit flat on the last day when they were pushing for victory and I suspect part of that was due to not having played five days in quite some time. New Zealand is not a major cricketing nation, but they need to find a way to play decent Test cricket to maintain development for the future.
Defensive Indifference 