Who is the best bowler of all time?

In my post a few weeks ago about Tendulkar’s 52nd Test hundred I included a bit about Sir Donald Bradman being the best batsman of all time. There are considerable difficulties comparing batsmen from different eras, but fortunately the Don was so good that there is little need for any subjective weighting of eras. Unfortunately it’s not so clear cut with respect to bowlers. The primary statistic for a batsman is his average, and whilst more recent ones do tend to be higher they are still readily comparable. The primary statistics for bowlers are wickets taken and bowling average though and those are both problematic when comparing bowlers from different eras. Bowling average has the same problem as batting average, plus it compares wickets to the frugality or otherwise of a bowler rather than to the total amount played (as batting average does). Total number of wickets taken, usually the primary stat, is faulty because many more Tests are played now than in years past. Murali leads the chart with 795 Test wickets, (like Bill Frindall, I exclude the ICC Super Test) but he played in almost five times the number of Tests as Sydney Barnes. A more seldom seen stat, but more theoretically useful in this case, is bowler’s strike rate, a measure of how many wickets a bowler took per deliveries bowled. (Technically it’s the other way around I know, but my phrasing still measures the same thing.) It’s still not perfect, however. It favours bowlers in the past who had the benefit of uncovered pitches and matches would end sooner than they do now.

Earlier this week I used a wickets taken per match to demonstrate Sri Lanka’s bowling ineptitude. After some thought, I concluded that it would probably be the best way to compare different bowlers from different eras as well. Obviously it corrects for total matches played, but since the total number of wickets that can be taken in a match has never changed it ought not to favour any particular era over any other. Like any average, it will require a minimum number of matches played. I opted to use 15, which would be small enough not to unfairly exclude bowlers who played in the very early days of Test cricket, but high enough to not include those who have played for less than a few years in modern times. In my analysis I actually use 30 innings bowled, so as to exclude batsmen who have played dozens of matches, but only occasionally bowled. This is the most subjective aspect to the analysis and a case could probably be made that 15 is a bit low and 20 would be a better number. That would leave out George Lohmann, the man with the lowest bowling average of all time, and Fred ‘The Demon’ Spofforth, however, so I prefer 15 as the cutoff.

Since Statsguru does not (to the best of my knowledge) have a feature to display wickets per match and I do not wish to perform the analysis by hand for every bowler in history to have bowled at least 30 innings I decided to look at the top 35 bowlers in each of the three traditional stats above. The Statsguru screenshots for these are shown below. (Click to make them large enough to actually read.)

The 35 top wicket takers in cricket history

The 35 best career bowling averages
The 35 best career bowling strike rates

After accounting for overlap between the lists I was left with 68 bowlers from all eras. I should point out that this is not an exhaustive list of the top 68 bowlers in terms of wickets per match, only the 68 which seemed most likely to have a high ratio. After checking to see if I had missed anyone with a particularly high ratio, I added Clarrie Grimmet to the list. He was not amongst the top 35 in any of the original categories, but still took an average of 5.84 wickets per match. Ultimately I found 12 bowlers who had a career wickets per match ratio over five and they are presented in the table below.

Click to make legible

By this analysis Sydney Barnes is the greatest bowler to have ever played the game, having averaged exactly seven wickets per match over the course of his career. It’s probably not the first name to leap to most minds, but nor is it an unreasonable choice. He still holds the record for most wickets in a single series, having taken 49 South African wickets in four matches in 1913-14 and his 17-159 at the Wanderers in that series is second only to Laker’s 19-90 in terms of match analyses. Even by the traditional metrics 189 wickets at 16.43 apiece is very, very good. It’s also not a novel choice. As recently as 2009 David Frith in Cricinfo suggested that Barnes was ‘[p]robably the greatest bowler who ever measured out a run-up’.

I don’t think there could be many complaints about the other eleven on the list either. The only one of whom I had not previously heard was Charlie Blythe, though Bobby Peel (the cricketer not the Prime Minister) is best remembered for allegedly urinating on the pitch during a Roses match and being banned from playing for Yorkshire by Lord Hawke. (By all accounts he was a very good bowler though.) After those two there are all quite famous names from almost every era. The fact that Murali is third on the list and the only contemporary bowler to average better than six wickets per match is not surprising, given the number of wickets he took in his career. (And it goes a long way to explaining why Sri Lanka have struggled so badly recently.) The most notable omissions from that list are the great West Indian fast bowlers. They did not miss out by much it should be pointed out; all bar Courtney Walsh averaged better than four wickets per match. I suspect the reason for this is that the Windian bowlers tended to share the wickets around. With so many greats in the same team and only twenty wickets available none were able to stand out as much as they undoubtedly would have had they played separately.

I would like to be able to compile a longer list, but I cannot be sure of the accuracy as I go farther down. Without going through every single bowler to have ever bowled in more than 30 innings it is not possible to ensure that a longer list would actually be complete. Hopefully at some point wickets per match will be considered a proper statistic and be easily available on Statsguru.

575-9

With all the fuss about the Morgan Report I had forgot a bit about India going for a whitewash against the Windies. It doesn’t look like they will. At stumps on the second day the West Indies are 575-9. Since the war, no side has lost after scoring more 575 or more in the first innings of a Test match. In fact, on only two occasions has a team has lost after scoring 550 or more in the first innings of a Test match. Both were at Adelaide and both were in this century. Australia lost to India in 2003 and I see no need, even after winning by an innings at Adelaide last year, to mention the other one. The second tied Test in Madras in 1986 also featured Australia scoring 574-4 declared in their first innings. Pakistan also once lost a match against Australia after scoring 574-8 declared in the second innings of the match. Since the war almost exactly half of matches in which the side batting first have gone past 549 have been drawn, 61 out of 123.

It’s only the second time the West Indies have gone past 550 since declaring on 749-9 against England in February of 2009 and the first time in over a year. (Compare this to England who since the same match in Bridgetown have gone past 550 seven times and four times in the past year.) It’s not wholly surprising; it looks a flat deck and we’ve seen that India’s bowling can be suspect when there’s not a lot of help from the pitch. Still, it’s very good for the West Indies that they managed to build on their second innings fight from the last Test and have put themselves in a position where they should certainly draw the Test match. (Though I don’t see them winning it.)

Whilst it is only the second time that the Windies batsman have passed 550 in almost three years, it is the eighth time that Indian bowlers have conceded that many in that time span. That is far and away the most of any team in that time span; the next most is Sri Lanka with five. The fact that India were the number one team in the world for much of that time highlights the absence of a clearly dominant side. (Which is not necessarily a bad thing.)

An evening with Statsguru

After the spectacular display this morning I have spent some quite a bit of time today on Statsguru to see where this it fits in. (If you don’t like stats you should stop reading straight away, but if you’re reading this in the first place you probably like stats.)

– Australia’s first innings lead in this match was 188, but they may still lose. There have been six previous instances of team losing after posting a first innings lead greater than 188 (throwing out Pakistan’s forfeiture at The Oval in 2006 and the bookmaker affected Test in Centurion twelve years ago). Interestingly, Australia have been involved in all six. They’ve been on the losing end three times though; in addition to Headingley 1981 and Calcutta 2001 the also lost at the SCG in 1894 after scoring 586 in the first innings. One of their victories was in South Africa though. At Kingsmead in 1950 they were bowled out for their previous lowest score in South Africa, 75, and conceded a first innings lead of 236. They bowled South Africa out for 99 in the second innings, however and successfully chased 336 to win.

– A draw seems unlikely, so one of South Africa or Australia will win with a completed innings score under 100. South Africa look the more likely victors; if so their 96 all out will be the twelfth lowest all time in a win and the third lowest since the war. The smallest ever is England’s 45 all out at the SCG in 1887 and each of the lowest four are from before 1900. The lowest post-war total in a winning cause is the same 75 all out from above, which may give Australia some hope. The second lowest is New Zealand’s 94 all out against India in 2002. Should Australia come back, their 47 all out will be the second lowest all time.

– Whilst taking five wickets on debut is not too unusual (it’s happened 89 times since the war) Vernon Philander did so with the fewest total deliveries. He bowled seven overs for his 5-15. The only other bowler to take a five-fer on debut in under ten overs is Graham Onions, who took 5-38 in 9.3 overs at Lord’s in 2009.

– Shane Watson’s 5-17 in five overs is the fourth fastest five-fer of all time. The fastest is Ernie Toshack’s 5-2 in just 19 deliveries (2.3 eight ball overs) against India at Brisbane in 1947.

– If Watson’s performance is on the losing side in this Test, he will at least have an understanding captain. Clarke took 6-9 in 6.2 overs in Mumbai in 2004, a Test that Australia lost by 13 runs. That currently stands as the shortest losing five-fer and is level with compatriot Tim May’s 5-9 as the fewest runs conceded in a losing five-fer.