SA v Oz round II

India are still well on top of what has been a very one sided second Test in Calcutta. As I write this the West Indies are 339-4, following on. They need 478 to make India bat again, but they need there is still over a day and a half to play.

The second Test between South Africa and Australia promises to be a much more exciting one. Australia must try to recover from being blown away for 47 (words I will never tire of writing) and losing the Test after having a first innings lead of 188 (also words I will never tire of writing). It’s a daunting task, but South Africa have a fairly daunting one as well – They mustn’t choke.

Apart from the fire and competitiveness that usually defines a South Africa v Australia Test, this will be notable for some peripheral contests as well. Most notably it may be Ricky Ponting’s last Test. He failed again in the first Test (though everyone bar Clarke failed for the Aussies) and if the new chairman of selectors wants to make his mark for the series against New Zealand he may have an easy target. Khawaja, Ponting’s replacement when the latter was injured last January, is in the side for the injured Shaun Marsh and if he gets a good score it’s hard to imagine the selectors not wanting to see him and Marsh batting together very soon. Clarke has also suggested that time may be up for Mitchell ‘He bowls to the left…’ Johnson if he doesn’t fire in Jo’burg. Certainly the teenager Pat Cummins is likely to come into the side, I would guess for the ‘stiff and sore‘ Ryan Harris. (Which, with Paul Harris possibly returning to the South Africa side, would be a relief for me.) It may then be a bowl off between Cummins and Johnson to see which of them is in the XI for the first Test against the Kiwis. Brad Haddin has the benefit of there not being a strong candidate to replace him, but his shot selection when his country are in trouble is so bad Australia might soon want to try anyone else behind the stumps.

South Africa are rather more settled, though Tahir did not get a chance to show himself at Newlands, so Paul Harris may fancy his chances for a return. Jacques Rudolph, after Yorkshire signed a different overseas player for next season, needs a score to maintain his rather tenuous place in the side.

Between Australia’s batsmen barely knowing which end of the bat to hold these days and South Africa having a history of chocking, there are the makings of some more batting collapses. However, South Africa showed a enough nous in their second innings that I think they can do enough to win.

An evening with Statsguru

After the spectacular display this morning I have spent some quite a bit of time today on Statsguru to see where this it fits in. (If you don’t like stats you should stop reading straight away, but if you’re reading this in the first place you probably like stats.)

– Australia’s first innings lead in this match was 188, but they may still lose. There have been six previous instances of team losing after posting a first innings lead greater than 188 (throwing out Pakistan’s forfeiture at The Oval in 2006 and the bookmaker affected Test in Centurion twelve years ago). Interestingly, Australia have been involved in all six. They’ve been on the losing end three times though; in addition to Headingley 1981 and Calcutta 2001 the also lost at the SCG in 1894 after scoring 586 in the first innings. One of their victories was in South Africa though. At Kingsmead in 1950 they were bowled out for their previous lowest score in South Africa, 75, and conceded a first innings lead of 236. They bowled South Africa out for 99 in the second innings, however and successfully chased 336 to win.

– A draw seems unlikely, so one of South Africa or Australia will win with a completed innings score under 100. South Africa look the more likely victors; if so their 96 all out will be the twelfth lowest all time in a win and the third lowest since the war. The smallest ever is England’s 45 all out at the SCG in 1887 and each of the lowest four are from before 1900. The lowest post-war total in a winning cause is the same 75 all out from above, which may give Australia some hope. The second lowest is New Zealand’s 94 all out against India in 2002. Should Australia come back, their 47 all out will be the second lowest all time.

– Whilst taking five wickets on debut is not too unusual (it’s happened 89 times since the war) Vernon Philander did so with the fewest total deliveries. He bowled seven overs for his 5-15. The only other bowler to take a five-fer on debut in under ten overs is Graham Onions, who took 5-38 in 9.3 overs at Lord’s in 2009.

– Shane Watson’s 5-17 in five overs is the fourth fastest five-fer of all time. The fastest is Ernie Toshack’s 5-2 in just 19 deliveries (2.3 eight ball overs) against India at Brisbane in 1947.

– If Watson’s performance is on the losing side in this Test, he will at least have an understanding captain. Clarke took 6-9 in 6.2 overs in Mumbai in 2004, a Test that Australia lost by 13 runs. That currently stands as the shortest losing five-fer and is level with compatriot Tim May’s 5-9 as the fewest runs conceded in a losing five-fer.

Two is not enough

Today we saw another example of how incredible Test cricket is. There has been a bit of hand-wringing in recent times about bat starting to dominate ball to an unreasonable extent. It isn’t all founded, but it is true that there has been an increasing sentiment that a ‘good’ pitch is a road on which both sides can score 500 in the first innings. Today blew that out of the water. Today we saw the ball finally make a comeback. Twenty-three wickets fell, nineteen of them in the space of about three hours after lunch. It was, as I mentioned earlier, the most incredible day of cricket I have seen.

We have already seen some spectacular tests this year when the bowlers were on top of the batsmen. Sri Lanka collapsed so spectacularly in Cardiff, England collapsed at Lord’s to set up a close finish, India collapsed to Stuart Broad at Trent Bridge to set up an English victory that had looked impossible, India collapsed to the West Indies earlier this week before the West Indies returned the favour and set up a thrilling finish to the test. This one will trump them all. Hopefully groundsmen and administrators are finally learning that a good pitch has something in it for batsmen and bowlers.

Today was also yet another reason why Test cricket is the greatest form of the sport. In what other sport could you have the match so utterly transform not once but twice? In what other sport could a side have a historically bad performance and still have a good chance to win? South Africa are in a good position on 81-1 needing 236, but at the start of their innings 236 looked like a very daunting target. The ‘ebb and flow’ of Test matches has always been considered a benefit, today it was a tsunami. How frustrating then that what should have been a third Test was scrapped in favour of more unremarkable limited overs matches? There were a pair of good contents in that leg, but most were one sided and dull. By contrast, when have these two sides not put on a thrilling exhibition of test cricket? Already England have played five meaningless ODIs in India. Next year they will have five more against Australia instead of a fourth Test against South Africa. This after the ECB and CSA agreed that the Test series ought to be a five match ‘marquee’ series. It is maddening, and there is a petition for the ECB and CSA to see sense. (I know I’ve plugged it before, but it is all the more obvious now why it is needed.) A three match series last winter would have seen the Ashes drawn 1-1 and a two match series here will certainly not be enough to determine a proper winner. We’re finally getting decent pitches, now we’re losing the matches to play on them.

Madness

Today was easily the most incredible day’s cricket I have ever seen. I actually missed the first session (I have to sleep sometime) and woke up to find that South Africa were in a reasonable position, 49-1 in response to Australia’s 284 all out. I didn’t think that Australia would get so many, but Clarke apparently batted very well with the tail. Still, South Africa looked in a good position. Shane Watson opened the bowling after lunch and I thought the Proteas would have an easy time of it. Ten overs later, of course, it was all but over. Watson took 5-17 in just five overs. It was good bowling, pitched up and moving off the surface, but South Africa didn’t play it very well. They went after the ball and were exposed when it nipped back at the stumps. There is bounce in the wicket, but Watson was pitching it on the right length to keep it hitting the stumps. Australia’s use of the DRS was also very good, precisely as it was meant. A dire run out for the ninth wicket summed up South Africa’s failings. After being one down at lunch they were all out for 96 halfway through the session.

Australia came out to bat leading by 188 and to the everyone’s amazement were all out leading by 235. It was without question the most dramatic collapse I have ever seen. I remember the West Indies being 21-5 at Sabina Park in 2004. I remember England being 21-5 at Lord’s the next year, though I’ve tried to block that out. Never before had I seen a side 21-7, however and never before in the history of Test cricket have a side been 21-9 and the Australians at one point were. They were in real danger of breaking the record for the lowest Test score of all time, New Zealand’s 26 all out against England. They got past that mark with a streaky boundary, however, and even managed to go past their lowest ever score of 36 all out. The actually added 26 for the tenth wicket to finish 47 all out. Vernon Philander picked up a five-fer on his debut, and it was certainly deserved. He bowled very tight, much like Watson did; pitching the ball up and threatening the stumps. If it went away from the batsmen he got an edge, if it went in he got an LBW.

It’s a spicy pitch in Cape Town, but that is not solely responsible for the two collapses. Nineteen wickets fell for 94 runs between lunch and the end of the Australian innings, but in the other half of the day 200 runs were added for the loss of just four wickets. The Australians especially could not be said to have batted well. Ponting shuffled across the stumps yet again and was LBW for a duck. Hussey played a needless waft outside off immediately after tea and was caught at slip and Brad Haddin played one of the worst shots I have ever seen. He tried to cut a ball that was too close to him and was caught behind with his team on 18-5! Although Australia avoided their lowest ever Test score, it was still their lowest since the war and their fourth lowest of all time.

More than anything else the Australians were culpable for their own demise and this was demonstrated quite clearly in the final passage of play. South Africa knew they had to bat sensibly to get the 236 they had been set and went about doing so. Australia were probably still in a state of some shock about their collapse and bowled a lot more loose deliveries and South Africa put them away gladly. They finished the day on 81-1 showing that the pitch was not a minefield. They may be favourites to win now, but who’d make a prediction about this match?

Clarke and Ponting

The current and previous Aussie captains have had very contrasting days today. Michael Clarke played an incredible innings. He began the day slightly inauspiciously by losing the toss. It looked a bowl first pitch and Smith duly inserted the Aussies. (Though Clarke said that he would have liked to bat anyway.) He was into the crease much sooner than he would have liked, however, as Australia slipped to 40-3 against the bowling of Steyn and the debutant Vernon Philander. Clarke had a torrid time starting against Steyn, but he stayed in and it was only a few overs before Steyn had to come out of the attack. From there Clarke found it much easier. Morkel, Tahir and Kallis took just 1-121 between them and went at nearly five an over. By the time Steyn returned to the attack the Aussie skipper was already past 70 and well set. A further five wickets fell before bad light stopped play early with Australia struggling on 214-8 with Clarke not out and having made exactly half of those runs.

Ponting, on the other hand, made only eight. He did not play poorly, but was undone by a brilliant inswinger from Steyn. It does mean that he has not passed fifty since the meaningless second innings at Brisbane last November. Over the last twelve months he averages just 20 in seven Tests. There was a lot of speculation over his future in the side after the dismal Ashes series. He stepped down from the captaincy, but hung on to his place. He compared himself to Tendulkar at the time as he hoped to have a similar Indian summer. Before the limited overs leg of the tour Clarke suggested that Ponting was due for a renaissance and Ponting himself said two days ago that he had no plans to retire. Events may conspire against him though. There is a series against New Zealand coming up which is a good one in which to blood youngsters. If Ponting can’t put up a good score at some point in this series he may have to jump before he is pushed.

SA v Aus preview

The ridiculously short two Test series between South Africa and Australia gets underway on Saturday. Two matches is not enough to decide between two such heavyweights. Even three really isn’t enough (and there is a lovely petition to add an extra match to the England v South Africa series next summer). But it is what it is, and should be good viewing anyway. The ODI and T20 series made for a good primer, both were quite close in the end. South Africa and Australia have produced some incredibly compelling cricket over the last few years, and they are as evenly matched this year as they have ever been.

I gave an early preview a month ago, but everything is a bit clearer now that the limited overs leg is over. Australia may be rebuilding after their 1-3 Ashes defeat, but they’re going about it quite well. They played well in Sri Lanka and reasonably well in the limited overs matches. It will be only the second time that Clarke has lead the side against a major opponent, however, and the first was the innings defeat at Sydney at the start of the year. He didn’t look very creative in that match, in particular he did not look like he had any answers when England’s batsmen were well set. (He now has the ignominy of allowing England’s highest ever score in Australia.) Australia have also brought two spinners on the tour, neither of whom have played in South Africa before. (Ten points to anyone who can name Australia’s spinner last time they toured South Africa without looking it up on Cricinfo.) They may not be a lot of use, however. Cape Town, the venue for the first test, usually takes the most spin of any ground in South Africa, but the Test is being played so early in the summer that it looks like it will seam more. (Though no one is quite sure. It’s been ninety years since the last time Cape Town hosted a November Test.)

South Africa have not made very many changes to their Test side in the last several years and they’ve always played very good cricket in that time. (Though never quite good enough to top the rankings.) Nine of the XI who won by an innings and 20 runs in Jo’burg two and a half years ago are in South Africa’s squad for the first test, though there is a good chance that Paul Harris will miss out in favour of Imran Tahir. Dale Steyn is still the best bowler in the world, especially when the pitches have a bit of pace in them. The Australians (Hussey apart) had a very difficult time against England’s pacemen in the Ashes, and I think they will continue to struggle against Steyn and co. The biggest problem for South africa may be the length of time since they last played a Test match. They have not played a Test since they hosted India in January and it might take them a bit to get back into the rhythm of the longest form. They will need to adjust quickly however; they cannot afford to fall behind in a two match series. I do think that they are marginally the better side, however.

It is very difficult to accurately predict the outcome of a series between two such evenly matched teams, especially over such a short series. It wouldn’t be a proper preview if I didn’t at least try though. So my prediction: The first Test will be drawn and South Africa will win the second.

Recap

Some brief thoughts on occurrences today:

The England men collapsed from 129-0 to 176 all out. It was pretty spectacular, even by English ODI standards, but there is little to be said about the match that has not been said on the tour already. The loss hands England a 0-5 whitewash. England can try to salvage a bit of face in a one off T20 before having two months off preceding the series against Pakistan in the UAE.

England were on the good side of a whitewash in South Africa though, as the women beat South Africa by five wickets to secure a 3-0 whitewash. A good bowling performance ensured that they only had to chase 182 to win and despite the early losses of Charlotte Edwards and Danni Wyatt they got home with a full seven overs to spare. Lydia Greenway top scored with 63, (and won Player of the Series) and Heather Knight won Player of the Match for her unbeaten 55 with the bat and 2-15 with the ball. England now have a three match T20 series to conclude the tour.

Bangladesh drew their rain ruined Test against the West Indies in Chittagong. There was never going to be a result, although the Windies were bowled out for 244 (a deficit of 106). Bangladesh were the better side and will take heart from debutant Elias Sunny who took 6-94 in the first innings. Two full days were lost to rain, although it was all overnight rain. The groundstaff could not get the outfield dry and days two and three were completely lost. It was something of a farce and should not happen on a test match ground, even in Bangladesh. The Windies have not had a great tour thus far; they won the ODI series 2-1, but were bowled out for 61 in the last match and this performance was a pretty poor one. There is one match left in the series and they will need to up their game considerably to avoid a humiliating defeat.

Zimbabwe won a historic victory against New Zealand. They chased down 329 to win by just one wicket and with one ball to spare. It was their highest ever successful run chase. Malcolm Waller won a deserving Man of the Match after scoring an unbeaten 99 off 74 deliveries and hitting the winning runs (though he was dropped twice in the last over). The Kiwis still won the series 2-1, but this does add something (I’m not sure what, exactly, probably some sort of spice) to the one off test match next week. Hopefully it will be a good match.

Not today, but on Sunday South Africa (men) levelled their series against Australia, inflicting an 80 run defeat on the tourists. Australia won the first match by 93 runs (D/L) so it’s been a pair of hammerings, but in opposite directions. The ODI series concludes on Friday and I am not even going to try to predict how that will go. A tie would probably be most fitting.

This, that and the other

Some short thoughts on the various matches I’ve been watching.

South Africa v Australia: First ODI
As I type this South Africa are 84-6 after sixteen overs needing 223 to win off 29 overs. Australia were marginally on top at the interval and Cummins put them firmly on top with two wickets in the eighth over. They haven’t looked back since. The rain was disappointing but Duckworth-Lewis gave a fair target. It’s also been really nice to see the lack of adverts on the ground. There is a plain rope around the ground and the bowlers run ups are marked with CSA’s facebook and twitter sites. Hopefully in the second ODI they will find a way to project their status updates and tweets on to the pitch. I know the technology exists.

Pakistan v Sri Lanka: First Test
Pakistan are in absolute control of this match after losing only one wicket on the second day. Sri Lanka bowled loosely at the start and it doesn’t look like they ever really recovered. (Though I could be wrong, I went to bed after about an hour. In my defence it was 02.00 in my time zone.) We saw in England that Sri Lanka no longer have any bowlers of note. Unless they can find someone to do what Stuart Broad did at Trent Bridge last summer it’s just a matter of hoping that they can hold on for a draw. Unfortunately for them, I believe it rains slightly less in the UAE than it does in England.

Marsielle v Arsenal
I have no idea how this match is going because Fox prefer to show matches between continental sides about whom I care little. (Not so little that I’m not watching between overs, mind.) So I get to watch Barcelona play Czech champions Viktoria instead. Yesterday I got to watch Inter Milan play Lille instead of either match involving a Manchester based side. Even more infuriatingly the Arsenal match is being shown on a delay, so they refused to even tell me the halftime score or show highlights. I would, of course, just watch the match later, except they’re showing it at the same time as the World Series. And it’s not like they don’t know. It’s the same broadcaster. They had an advert for the World Series at halftime. It’s times like this that I’m kind of glad that Liverpool did not make Europe, because if I’d had to miss the Reds in favour of some continental side I would be be very cross instead of just mildly irritated.

Rangers v Cardinals: Game One
Both sides have had very good offensive performances and won their respective Championship Series in six games. They scored a lot of their runs at opposite ends of their matches though, with St Louis consistently jumping out in front early and the Rangers blowing games open with late home runs. The big story for their Cardinals has been their bullpen performing brilliantly after some shaky starting pitching. They might have some trouble getting away with that against the powerful Rangers offence however. The Cardinals have home field advantage which may be important as the Rangers will definitely fancy their chances in their very small park. (They were 4-1 at home in the first two rounds.) I am tipping the Rangers to win, as unless the Cardinals’ starters improve they will find themselves in big holes early on.