England win, Bresnan out

England won the first warmup match by three wickets. It wasn’t particularly convincing; the bowlers conceded lower order runs in both innings and there were a pair of middle order collapses when we batted. I’m not too fussed though. Whilst it’s good that we take warmup matches seriously, they are still called warmup matches for a reason. None of the players have played competitively since October at the earliest and the Test specialists have not played since August, so a bit of rust is to be expected. The conditions are also completely unfamiliar, so whilst England did not look dominant I don’t think there is anything about which to be worried. Hopefully they will look a bit more assured in the second warmup.

Unfortunately, Tim Bresnan was ruled out of the series with the elbow injury he suffered before the match. It is a blow for England; Bresnan’s stamina would have been invaluable in the UAE, plus his bowling style is probably better suited to the slower wickets than a tall bowler. Finn looks the most likely candidate to replace him, having played in the first warmup match, but with Onions likely to be added to the squad to replace Bresnan I would like to see him get a look in the second warmup. He’s not as quick (as I recall) as Bresnan, but I think he is more like Bresnan than Finn is. I mentioned a couple of months ago that I would like to see him get a Test, and that hasn’t changed. I think Finn is a good replacement, but Onions may be able to get more out of the pitch with his style. Hopefully he will get to play in one of them.

Sehwag is not an opener

In my 2011 XI post I remarked upon the fact that there were a dearth of good openers last year. Not only did no full time occupant of the position came close to matching the record of Alastair Cook, but none of them even averaged over fifty. I put it down at first to a statistical anomaly, but watching India ‘bat’ at the SCG I realised that many teams no longer have traditional openers in the mould of Strauss and Cook. Most teams now have at least one opener who tries to get his team off to an ODI-style flier. Sehwag for India is the most notable, but New Zealand have McCullum, Sri Lanka have Dilshan, Bangladesh have Iqbal, Pakistan have Hafeez, South Africa have Smith and Australia have Warner (now) and Watson (prior to his injury). The only team besides England who do not follow this trend are the West Indies, and in their case it is only because of the ongoing feud between the WICB and Chris Gayle.

I think this is central to the spate of collapses and low scores we have seen in Test matches this year. Having an ‘explosive’ batsman at the top of the order is not necessary at Test level and more and more it appears to be a hindrance. New ball bowlers have started to appreciably swing the ball again and especially last year we saw an increase in the number of wickets that helped the bowlers early on. The batsmen trying to hit out and score 100 before lunch are having their technique exposed by the moving ball and are departing early on in the innings. This is borne out by the statistics; through the noughties the average opening partnership was just a shade over 40. In 2011 it was 31.30. Having the number three come in to face a still new ball is obviously far less than ideal, and this is how top order collapses start. We’ve seen it several times this year, and whilst it isn’t all down to the failures of opening batsmen I think that is one of the main culprits. The job of an opening batsmen is to accumulate runs whilst playing the shine off the ball and wearing down the opposition’s best bowlers, not to propel the team to 150-1 at lunch. The teams like England that remember this fact are the ones that will be successful.

The tour starts today!

England fly out to the UAE today for their first Test series there. This day excites me every time England go on tour, but particularly so this time as it will be the first proper look at the UAE conditions. It’s the first series, even including the Ashes, where I’ve been very keen on watching a warmup match. Whilst the conditions are described as ‘subcontinental’ the UAE is not strictly on the subcontinent, but rather the Arab peninsula so I am very eager to see how the conditions actually look. (And not only for the Tests, but for Lancashire’s opener in March.) The first warmup is against an interesting XI as well, so it’s worth marking the calendars for the 7th as well as the 17th.

As far as the actual series is concerned it looks like it should be a good one. England and Pakistan were the two best teams in 2011, though England’s wins came mostly against stronger opposition. Pakistan have shown a willingness to bat slowly and reasonably, however, which I think will be an important skill as a lot of sides in the past year have collapsed playing rash shots and England have capitalised on this. Whilst I don’t see our bowlers panicking or getting desperate for wickets, if Pakistan keep their heads when the runs dry up they could still make life hard for the England bowlers. Unfortunately that could make for a very dull contest, but Pakistan have a lively seam attack as well so if the groundsmen put a bit in the wicket it will probably be to everyone’s benefit. Strauss has hinted that England will play three seamers, but I would not be surprised to see some rotation between Tests. England have a good squad of bowlers, and resting some of them might not be a bad idea.

I won’t guess at a series result this early, but despite a lot of optimism from Pakistan I think England have the edge. England’s success last year was against what had been considered to be the best team in the world and to say that it was emphatic would be an understatement. Whilst England have not yet gone to the subcontinent, the bowlers proved last winter that they can take wickets even when not getting massive amounts of swing. There have also been suggestions that Swann has been figured out after he had a quiet 2011, but I don’t think that’s the case. During last winter’s Ashes and last summer’s home series he only got two wickets that took turn and he picked up five wicket hauls in both of them. In the other matches he didn’t get much of a chance as the seamers were picking up all the wickets before he got the ball. Saeed Ajmal was the better spinner last year, but it is not a given that he will win a head to head matchup with Swann. Pakistan are at ‘home’ and have been impressive this year, but England have better batsmen, better bowlers and a better wicket-keeper and, pending the tour matches, have to be favourites.

AM XI v England XI

England’s opponents for the warmup matches in the UAE were finally announced today and the first match will be against a combined Associates and Affiliate XI led by Irish captain William Porterfield. It’ll only be a warmup match, of course, but it’s still a rather interesting matchup. There are three Irish players in the AM XI, Boyd Rankin and George Dockrell are playing alongside their national captain, and all played in Ireland’s World Cup victory over England last march. (And it wouldn’t be impossible for all three to play for England at some point in the future.) Thee are also two Scotsmen in the side, so the home nations are well represented. The match will be in Dubai and will be followed by a match against a PCB XI at a venue still to be decided.

The AM XI looks like a pretty strong side compared to the usual opponents in a tour match, which is a good thing I think. England have not played Test cricket in some time and it would not do for them to be rusty going into a series against a side who have been playing very well recently. It’s also nice to see the tour fixtures sorted at all since it’s only a month now until the first Test. I can hardly wait.

Pakistan v England stats

I always rather enjoy going through Statsguru on Cricinfo, and after looking at some of Sri Lanka’s stats yesterday, today I thought I’d look at Pakistan’s and England’s statistics over the last twelve months and how they compare going into next month’s Test series.

England and Pakistan have been the two best sides over the past twelve months by a considerable distance. England have won seven and lost just one Test in that time and Pakistan have won five and lost one. No other side has a win-loss ratio above 1.00 and no other side has won more than four Tests in that time. (Australia have won four and lost four, India have won four and lost five.)

England have been in dominating form. The twelve month period began with the defeat at Perth, but then included a pair of innings victories over Australia and India each and one over Sri Lanka. The gulf between England and the rest of the world with the bat is astonishing. England average 48.30 with 17 centuries (five of them unbeaten) both numbers easily the best in the world. The next best average is Pakistan’s 39.56 and the overall average for the rest of the world is 29.57. In other words England average almost 200 runs more in a completed innings than the rest of the world. There were 57 centuries hit in the past twelve months by teams other than England, with the most for any one team being India’s ten. England’s 17 centuries come at an average or 1.7 per match (fairly easy maths there), whilst the rest of the world average 0.84 centuries per Test and that is not even accounting for the number of times England have only needed to bat once! There is less of a gap with the ball, as England’s bowling average of 26.58 is only the second best in the world, behind Pakistan’s 26.14. The average amongst other sides in this case is 34.78 so England are still comfortably better, but not by as much. England have also done well bowling sides out. They did so in eight of their ten matches over the past year and averaged 18.7 wickets per match (as a fielding side, i.e. including run outs). Only Pakistan at 19.4 fared better and the average amongst all other sides was 15.8.

Statistically then it should be a fantastic series in January. The best attack against the best batting order and the second best attack against the second best batting order. England’s stats have come against stronger sides than Pakistan’s in that time, but both sides beat Sri Lanka 1-0 at home. England have also never played in the UAE, so an analysis adjusted for home field advantage cannot be made. I’m very much looking forward to seeing how things play out come 17 January.

Test squad for UAE tour

England have announced the squad for the three test series against Pakistan in the UAE in January. In a sign of not only unusual but almost unprecedented stability there is only one chance from the Ashes squad with Ravi Bopara replacing the retired Paul Collingwood. The selection probably closest to a surprise is that Steve Davies retains his place as reserve keeper for the test matches. There was a strong suggestion that he’d fallen behind Bairstow in the pecking order, but it seems that was only for limited overs matches. Hopefully it won’t be relevant, of course. Matt Prior has a strong case for being the best wicket keeper in the world right now and if England have to field any reserve it will be a huge blow. Monty Panesar retains his place as the second spinner, which is not a huge surprise. It was not so long ago that he was the first choice and the other possible selections don’t look like challenging him at the moment. Samit Patel still has a lot of work to do to get into the test side, even if he is moving in the right direction, and Simon Kerrigan is still unproven, even at county level. There wasn’t any place in the squad for Graham Onions, putting a swift end to my suggestion that he play as a fourth seamer.

The squad announcement doesn’t leave much room for speculation about the starting XI in Dubai. Barring any late injuries, nine of the order are set in stone and a tenth, Eoin Morgan, is almost a certainty given the selectors’ preference for six batsmen. (With which I disagree, given the batting abilities of Prior and Broad, but that cause is long lost.) That leaves Bresnan, Tremlett, Finn and Panesar competing for the last bowling spot. I’ve said before that I’d give it to Bresnan and I still would, despite the lure of playing a second spinner. We saw in the Pakistan v Sri Lanka series that pace can be effective in the UAE, and Bresnan is a better bowler overall than Monty.

Pakistan have been playing very good cricket recently, and if they keep it up (a pretty big ‘if’ I know) they will be a huge challenge for England. It’s a strong squad though, there are no injuries (as much as I hate going six months without any cricket there are fitness advantages) so it should be a stronger side than the one that beat India so comprehensively at Edgbaston and the Oval last summer. It is shaping up to be a fantastic series and I’m starting to wish it too had a fourth test.

Samit Patel and the IPL

I’m very glad that Samit Patel declined to play in the IPL this year. He says that he needs to focus on Championship cricket to improve his chances of selection to the Test side. It would be easy for him to try to get some of the money on offer in the IPL with the knowledge that he is very unlikely to get a Test place anyway, but I am glad that he has chosen to fight for that slim chance all the same.

Right now his best chance of getting into the Test squad is probably as a second spinner for subcontinental tours. He’s probably still behind Monty Panesar for that spot and may soon be behind Simon Kerrigan, but he can bat better than either of them. It’s probably too late for him to get into this winter’s tours, but a full season next summer could boost his chances for selection against India, where he performed well in the recent ODIs. I’m not sure how much going to the IPL may have jeapordised those chances (it didn’t really hurt Eoin Morgan), but it would have caused him to miss almost half of the Championship. It probably can’t hurt for him to make his priorities clear to the England management though and a good season will ensure that his name is at least mentioned.

Who are England’s best bowlers?

It’s been a common question over the last several years, but for once it’s because of a surplus of talent rather than a dearth. Assuming everyone is fit (and there are question marks about Chris Tremlett and Stuart Broad) the contenders for probably three (maybe four) fast bowling places are James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Tim Bresnan, Chris Tremlett, Steve Finn and Graham Onions. Anderson is guaranteed his place and Broad, if fit, probably is too. Bresnan and Tremlett have matched each other with excellent performances in Australia and at home against India. Finn is one of the fastest bowlers to take fifty Test wickets and Onions had a very good start to his career before being injured.

Onions is probably the least likely to get a game considering for how long he’s been out of the side. Finn is a wicket taker, but an expensive one which doesn’t fit in with the ethos of the side. One of the major improvements that Strauss and Flower have implemented is to cut off runs and bore batsmen out, and Finn tends to haemorrhage runs whilst taking wickets. (He still has a fairly low average, but a very high economy rate.) It’s probably a shootout then between Tremlett and Bresnan. Bresnan has an edge in that he is almost an all rounder. We saw against India his ability to score lower order runs. There’s a possibility that they could both play; England have been obstinate in only picking four bowlers, but on the slow pitches of the UAE England might finally change the balance of the side. One imagines that a fifth bowler would probably be a spinner (probably Monty Panesar), but it’s not guaranteed.

I would actually go down a different route to what I think Flower and co will. If I were picking the attack I’d go with five bowlers, but only one spinner. I like Monty, of course (everyone does), but he’s been out of form for a while and I’m not sure he is going to be effective. I’d rather see four quicks who can operate opposite Swann. I quite like the bowling of Finn, but for the UAE and Sri Lanka I’d leave him and Tremlett out. They are both tall hit-the-deck bowlers and I don’t think that will be very effective on the slower pitches. I’d definitely give Bresnan the third quick bowling place. His bowling may be better suited to English pitches, but I think he can prosper in the UAE. His style is not too dissimilar to Junaid Khan. They both bowl quickly and accurately and can swing the ball late. Khan is probably the better bowler, but it was not thought that he would succeed in the UAE. For a similar reason I’d give Onions a chance, at least for the first Test. He won’t get as much swing as he would in England, but he is accurate and will pitch the ball up which I think will work better than banging it in. My bowling unit (assuming fitness) would thus be Anderson, Broad, Bresnan, Onions and Swann.

Let’s get this over with

Now that the World Series is over I can turn my attention back to England’s disaster of a tour to India. The final match is tomorrow, a one-off T20 in Calcutta. England are the reigning T20 World Champions as well as the number one ranked T20 side according to the ICC’s recently unveiled rankings. Despite this, I can’t see England winning. Admittedly, T20s are rather more of a lottery than any other format (as we saw against the West Indies) but England have played so abjectly against India that it will take a huge slice of luck to win. Graeme Swann will lead the side again and once again it will be a very young side.

After the match England will be able to fly home for a much needed rest until the series against Pakistan in the UAE in the new year. Whilst there will be a lot of questions asked about the performance in India, England have never been all that good at ODIs in India and the focus should certainly be on the upcoming series. Pakistan are playing rather well against Sri Lanka right now, and it is looking like it will be a good contest in January. Pakistan have shown that they have the firepower to bowl England out twice in that series (though they’ll need to improve their fielding). I think this will be the more interesting of the two series. Sri Lanka appear to pose the opposite problem; England found it difficult to bowl them out twice in England this summer and it won’t be any easier in Sri Lanka. England have not actually won a Test match in Sri Lanka since the last match of the 2001 series, but Sri Lanka are a worse side than they have been for some time and England are a much better side. I think England will manage to beat Sri Lanka 1-0, but I’m not sure about Pakistan. It’s going to be a tricky winter and the best thing England can do is get the T20 over with and put the series behind them.