Euro 2012 group permutations

The last round of group fixtures in Euro 2012 start today. Happily there is still quite a lot for which to play as the tournament has been a very good one so far. Here are the current permutations for all the groups, (assuming I worked everything out correctly):

Group A
No one is safe yet and all four teams can guarantee a place in the quarter-finals with a win tomorrow. Draws can see things get a bit hairy, however. For Russia, a draw is all they need to go through (and will send Greece out) and a win will see them top the group. If Greece can win and the Czech Republic draw with Poland, however, all three of Greece, Russia and the Czech Republic will finish on four points and the de facto tiebreaker will be goal difference*. This would rule the Czech Republic out unless Greece slaughter Russia by six goals or more. More practically, Greece would need to win by three goals or more to top the group in this scenario and cannot top the group if there is a positive result in the Poland v Czech Republic match. If Greece win and one of Poland of the Czech Republic win, that winner will top the group with the loser and Russia going out. In summary:
Russia – Win: top the group. Draw: advance and top the group if Poland draw or win by three goals or fewer. Lose: advance only if Poland and the Czech Republic draw with each other.
Czech Republic – Win: advance and top the group if Russia lose or draw. Draw: advance if Greece lose or draw. Lose: eliminated.
Poland – Win: advance and top the group if Russia lose. Draw: Eliminated. Lose: eliminated.
Greece – Win: advance and top the group if by more than three goals and Poland and Czech Republic draw with each other. Draw: eliminated. Lose: eliminated

Group B
Holland’s poor form has thrown this group open. The situation is similar to that of Group A: no one is yet safe, but Germany are the closest and can go through even with a loss. The only way for them to be eliminated is to lose by at least two goals and for Portugal to win. In such a scenario, Denmark would top the table with Portugal second and Germany third on goal difference. At the other side of the table, the only way for Holland to progress is to win by no fewer than two goals and for Germany to beat Denmark. Denmark can advance if they better Portugal’s result or if they beat Germany by two or more goals. If Portugal match or better the Danes’ result (or Germany are eliminated as above), it will be the Portuguese who will go through. In summary:
Germany – Win: top the group. Draw: top the group. Lose: advance if loss is by fewer than two goals or Portugal lose or draw.
Portugal – Win: advance and top the group if Denmark win, but by fewer goals. Draw: advance if Denmark draw or lose. Lose: advance only if loss is by one goal and Denmark lose by at least a goal†. (See additional footnote.)
Denmark – Win: advance and top group if by two or more goals and by more goals than Portugal or if Portugal do not win. Draw: advance if Portugal lose. Lose: advance if loss is by one goal and Portugal lose by one goal without scoring.
Holland – Win: Advance if by two or more goals and Denmark lose. Draw: eliminated. Loss: eliminated.

Group C
A slightly simpler group than the first two; here Ireland are already eliminated. Spain and Croatia are both on four points and the winner of their head to head matchup is guaranteed to top the group. Italy could advance with a win and and a positive result in the Croatia v Spain match. If that match is drawn, however, we could see another scenario in which three teams finish level on points if Italy beat Ireland. Here, all three teams would have drawn against the other and goals scored in their matches would be the first tiebreaker. Spain would be guaranteed to go through as they would finish level with Croatia and have a better overall goal difference (the next tiebreaker, see first footnote). A 1-1 draw would put all three teams level on goals and make overall goal difference the sole tiebreaker. This would mean that Italy would need to win by at least three goals against Ireland to advance and at least five goals to top the group. In summary:
Spain – Win: top the group. Draw: advance and top the group if Italy do not win or the score is 2-2 or higher (see above). Lose: advance if Italy do not win.
Croatia – Win: top the group. Draw: advance if Italy do not win or the score is 2-2 or higher. Lose: advance if Italy do not win.
Italy – Win: advance if either Spain or Croatia lose, top the group if Spain and Croatia draw 0-0. Draw: eliminated. Lose: eliminated.
Ireland – Already eliminated.

Group D
Similar to Group C in that there are two teams level on four points at the top, England and France, but for the bottom placed team, Sweden, the game is already up. The situation is much simpler, however, with France all but guaranteed already to go through and England guaranteed to go through with a win or a draw. England can advance with a loss and it is the only scenario in which France will miss out: if France and England both lose and France lose by a greater margin than England then Ukraine will top the group and England will be runner-up on overall goals scored. For Ukraine it is simple: they must win, but if they do they are guaranteed to progress. Both England and Ukraine can top the group if they win and France do not, whilst for England a draw and a French loss will also be enough. England can even top the group if France do win, but they will have to win by a greater margin than France. In summary:
France – Win: advance and top the group if England do not win or win by the same or a smaller margin. Draw: advance and top the group if England and Ukraine also draw. Lose: advance unless England also lose but by a smaller margin.
England – Win: advance and top the group if France do not win or win by a smaller margin. Draw: advance and top the group if France lose. Lose: Advance if France also lose and by a greater margin.
Ukraine – Win: Advance and top the group if France do not win. Draw: eliminated. Lose: eliminated.
Sweden – Already eliminated.

*The first tiebreaker in this tournament is not goal difference, but head-to-head result. However in this case all three teams would have the one win and one loss against the other two and thus the tiebreaker becomes goal difference in the matches between the teams. Since in this scenario all the teams will have drawn with Poland, the goal difference between them will be identical to the overall difference. The full tiebreaker criteria are in section VI, 8.07 here.

†Portugal can advance if they and Denmark both lose by one goal. They and Holland will all three be level with three points and a goal difference against each other of nought and the tiebreaker would then go to goals scored against the other teams. Portugal and Denmark each go into the match with three, but only Portugal have the ability to add to it in their match. Thus if they can score at least one goal in their loss, they will still advance in this case.

Euro 2012 preview

Euro 2012 starts this Friday. England go into the tournament with almost no expectation; even the new coach Roy Hodgson has tried to play down England’s chances. And having watched (most of, until I started to fall asleep) England’s recent friendlies I am inclined to agree. England won both of them, yes, but never looked better than scrappy. That’s okay if one can scrape out a win against an equal or better side, but a tough 1-0 victory against Norway is not really a credit. England’s squad, whilst not ridiculous, is far from inspiring. The only good move was to make Gerrard captain; apart from that the squad is made up of good players but only a few one would consider to be true international quality. (And I say that knowing full well the number of Liverpool players in the squad.)

The best news for England was probably the draw, which was relatively favourable. England are in Group D, which appears to be the second easiest after Group A. England will still have some difficulty actually topping the group, however, and it is by no means assumed that they will make it to the knockout rounds. The main opponent will be France and whilst les Bleus are unlikely to strike fear into any team until they can redeem themselves for the last World Cup, I would still be surprised to see England win. (Though I was not expecting the England rugby team to win in France during the Six Nations either.) England are also in the same group as Sweden, who England have not beat in a competitive match in some large number of years. There is also Ukraine. England should beat them, but they are good enough that if England don’t play well there is every chance that they could be held to a draw or even lose. Whilst one could see England finishing anywhere in the top three, my guess is that they will scrape to second. My second guess would be a third-place finish with topping the group a possibility, but an unlikely one.

The most interesting group should be Group B. A competitive Holland v Germany match is always a good thing, but this time it will possibly shape the entire tournament. With respect to Portugal and Denmark, the other two teams in Group B and certainly no pushovers, Holland and Germany are the strong favourites to make it out of the group and the set up of the knockout stages means that they will both have relatively easy quarter-final matches. Whoever finishes as runner up in the group, however, are likely to face Spain in the semi-finals whilst the group winners will have a much easier match against either the winner of Group D or the runner up in Group C. The winner of Group B should thus have as easy a path to the final as for which could be reasonably hoped and there is a good chance that the winner of the Holland v Germany match on the 13th will be that winner.

My prediction for the entire tournament is summarised in this bracket:

In more detail: Holland win their match against Germany and top Group B. Greece top Group A with Russia coming second, but neither provide significant opposition in the quarter-finals. Spain win Group C with the Republic of Ireland upsetting Italy to take the runner up spot. England play sloppily against Spain and lose, but give the impression that they would have had a chance if they had been more precise. Ireland have a chance to get some measure of revenge on France from 2010, but lose a fairly low quality match. Holland beat France relatively easily in one semi-final, whilst Germany and Spain dig in for a good match that Germany eventually win. The final is then an absolute cracker, but the Dutch reprise their group stage victory.

Six Nations thoughts

I was preoccupied by the Test match, but I watched the two of the first three Six Nations matches at the weekend. I already talked a bit on the Armchair Selector about the Scotland v England match, but I don’t think I emphasised how lacklustre England still looked. It didn’t really surprise me, given the number of new faces in the side, but they did not fill me with confidence. The defence especially looked patchy and were fortunate to concede only six points. It was a poor match from both sides, however, and not a particularly entertaining one. Both sides will need to improve in order to finish high in the table.

The other match I watched was Ireland v Wales. After the meetings at the World Cup and last year’s Six Nations it looked before the match like it could be the best fixture of the entire of the tournament and will certainly take some beating. As disappointed as Ireland will be to have lost, Wales were probably the deserved victors. The did not quite dominate play, I thought, but they looked more fluid and better organised. Had they been on the losing side I think they would have been just as disappointed overall, albeit with a less singular cause. With Wales hosting France later in the tournament, this win should put them clear favourites for the title.

The match I did not watch was France v Italy. (There was cricket on and I only have so many hours in a day.) France won, which is no surprise, though I heard that Italy played better than they have in the past. Italy may have a decent chance to spring an upset this year; they host England and Scotland both of whom look to be amongst the weaker teams in the tournament. Next Saturday is Italy v England and France v Ireland, with Wales v Scotland on Sunday. I’m tipping England to win against Italy, but they will not find it straightforward, France to beat Ireland in a reasonably good match and Wales to overcome Scotland fairly easily.

Congratulations to the All Blacks!

France 7-8 New Zealand. That’s the scoreline that ends 24 years of hurt for the All Blacks. It was hardly a pretty match, it could probably be inferred from the scoreline that it was very attritional. New Zealand never trailed, but it was a bad handling error that led to France’s try. They had a very fraught last ten minutes in which they had to work hard to stop France and not concede a penalty inside their own half. It would have been a little bit more comfortable, but the All Blacks only got three points from kicks out of eleven attempted. (It was worse for France, who only got two from eleven.) France played well, they fought harder than I or a lot of people expected. New Zealand were the better side though and just about made it count.

Blue v Black

Tomorrow morning at 03.00 CDT/09.00 BST is the fourth ODI between India and England. I’m hoping for an England fightback (and some changes to the XI) but I’m not optimistic. I’ll be missing the first part of the match because it is conveniently at the same time as the final of the Rugby World Cup. (Actually it is quite convenient because I probably wouldn’t get up just to see England play like shite again.)

New Zealand play France in a match that the All Blacks ought to win because they are the better side and ought to lose because they have a World Cup hoodoo against France. Though actually it’s probably fairer to just say that New Zealand have a World Cup hoodoo; against France they have actually won three and lost two. The problem for the All Blacks is that those two losses have both been in knockout matches, whilst of their three victories only one has been in a knockout match (the 1987 final). The other two were in the 2003 third place playoff (or Bronze Final as they’re calling it now) and in the group stage of this World Cup.

France have had their much publicised mutiny in the ranks, but are riding on a wave of confidence. They’ve pulled off two upsets in the knockout stages already and they clearly feel that they can pull off another. They will certainly have to play better than they did against Wales, however and will be unlikely to be aided by dodgy refereeing. By comparison, the All Blacks looked a bit fraught in the first half against Argentina, but quite comfortable since then. They have coped well with the loss of Dan Carter and look strong favourites. But then, when have New Zealand ever not looked strong favourites? (In rugby, I mean.) Despite being consistently the best side they have not won since the opening tournament. And, going off the media reports, the side and their fans actually seem to have less confidence than Les Bleus. Perhaps that’s a good thing for them. Their could be accused of overconfidence in their previous losses.

My prediction: France 9-22 New Zealand.