Euro 2012 draw etc

I was away doing actual work for most of the afternoon, but since then I have caught up on the details of he Euro 2012 draw. England were drawn in group D, alongside Ukraine, Sweden and France. It’s a pretty good draw, I think, though all of the group matches will be in Ukraine and England’s base is in Poland. (Surely it would have made more sense to find accommodations after the fixtures were set?) In fact, only if England win the group (unlikely) will they play a match in Poland (the semi-final).

England’s campaign will begin on the 11th of June against France. It will be an opportunity for revenge for the defeat at Wembley last year and the rugby players’ defeat in New Zealand, but more likely it will be a chance for another humiliating loss to France. It will probably also be the match that decides the group winner, although neither Ukraine or Sweden will be walkovers. If England finish as runners up their quarter final opponents will likely be Spain, so there will be a strong incentive to win the group, though the desire to not play Germany didn’t help in South Africa. If England do win the group they will probably play Italy, though there’s an outside chance that they would play the Republic of Ireland. That would be fun, but pretty unlikely. Either way I don’t see England going to the semi-final. Even less likely than a semi-final berth for England is one for a side from Group A. The quarter-final arrangements mean that two of Poland, Greece, Russia and the Czech Republic will face two of Holland, Denmark, Germany and Portugal.

It would be remiss of me if I didn’t look at those teams, make some vague and only partly accurate appraisals of their skills and use that to predict the course of the tournament. I’ll revise, or at least add specifics to this closer to the tournament, but for now my prediction is:
Group A
Greece
Czech Republic (Could easily switch with Greece)
Russia
Poland

Group B
Holland
Germany (Holland v Germany is 13 June, can’t wait)
Portugal
Denmark

Group C
Spain (duh)
Ireland (I am required to include at least one upset)
Italy
Croatia

Group D
France (I’m realistic)
England
Sweden
Ukraine

QFs:
Germany def Greece
Holland def Czech Republic
Spain def England
France def Ireland (via handball)

SFs:
Spain def Germany (probably)
Holland def France (easily)

Final: See 2010 World Cup. (Though I’d prefer a Holland v Germany final. What a match that would be.)

Why the Reds will win today

Later today Liverpool will play at Stamford Bridge for the second time in fewer than ten days, this time for the League Cup quarter final. It’s an odd quirk of scheduling, but such are the possibilities of a random draw. More irritating is the fact that we have not had a single home tie in the competition. Still, I think we will win.

Liverpool are currently playing their best football this season. After throwing away winning positions earlier in the season we rallied late to beat Chelsea once and would have beat City were it not for the brilliance of Joe Hart. Chelsea, meanwhile look poor. Yes, they beat Wolves 3-0 on Saturday, but that was Wolves. It’s hardly indicative of a return to prominence. Last Wednesday they conceded a stoppage time winner against Leverkusen after being 1-0 in front at one stage. Chelsea have one advantage in that they had an extra day to rest, having played on Saturday. It will make things more difficult for the Reds, but we have a deep squad and should field a strong XI regardless. Historically, Chelsea have had a slight edge in this competition, although the Reds have dominated the recent encounters in the league. The Liverpool website has a great overview of the stats.

The fact that Liverpool have had only one day in which to recuperate means that the side to face Chelsea is difficult to predict. Carragher has been on the bench for the last couple of matches, but has not played in either so he might be an option. Sebastian Coates and Martin Kelly are also good options at the back, though neither have played a lot of first XI football this season. Carroll presumably has a decent chance to start as he will be rested, as is Maxi Rodriguez. Rodriguez, of course, scored last week at Stamford Bridge. I don’t know if Craig Bellamy is ready to return yet, but if he is he is probably a near automatic selection. It’s harder to say who might make way for those players, as that will mostly depend on fitness. It’s probably safe to assume that Reina and Suarez will both start though. Johnson, with his recent injury woes, might be one to miss out, but he scored the winner last time we were at Stamford Bridge and looked in good form on Sunday. It won’t be an ideal XI, and those who played on Sunday will be tired, but I think they will do enough to beat a Chelsea side that have not looked up for it at times this season. I’m predicting another 2-1 win, but after extra time.

Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City

There’s really never been any doubt that Joe Hart is the best goalkeeper in England, but he demonstrated that fact again today anyway. Liverpool could have very easily won 4-1 were it not for Hart; after a sluggish start Liverpool dominated the last hour of the match and forced Hart into no fewer than three brilliant saves. It wasn’t a particularly good match for City otherwise. They looked tired and Balotelli, coming on as a sub, needed only 19 minutes to pick up two yellow cards.

I’m not sure if it was a good result for Liverpool or not. On the one hand the Reds dominated much of the game, and for all the brilliant saves by Hart there were a couple of chances that were spurned. With City down to ten over the last ten minutes there was a clear advantage. Liverpool played well enough to win, certainly. At the same time, City are table toppers for a good reason and they have only failed to win one match this season. It certainly wasn’t the same style of frustrating draw that characterised the previous three home matches. I think I would have taken a draw at the start of the match, but coming so close to winning against the top of the table is agonising. It is more reason for optimism ahead of the League Cup match against Chelsea though.

Chelsea 1-2 Liverpool!

It was great to see the Reds win again today, it seems like it’s been a while. They deserved the win too, they played much more convincingly than I have seen them for a lot of this season, at least in the first half. Before the interval they kept possession well and harried Chelsea into errors. It was one of these which led to the opening goal and almost to a second. It was good sustained pressure from the Reds and they deserved the lead.

It was odd, then, that all of their positive nature seemed to desert them at halftime. Chelsea did make a change at the interval, but Liverpool seemed more content to sit back. It is this that led to Chelsea’s equaliser as the Reds failed to close down the attack. It was all right in the end though. Johnson put together an absolutely brilliant run to score the winner that had eluded the Reds in their last few matches.

There wasn’t blood

Full time: England 1-0 Spain. It’s an amazing result. I thought England would be butchered by Spain. To be fair, every analysis I saw agreed with me. Spain are rightly World and European Champions, whilst England looked lacklustre throughout most of their qualifying campaign.

Spain played their usual style of possession and passing based football, but even early on they were a bit sloppy. Their passes weren’t quite right and England had opportunities to pick them off before Spain could apply any sustained pressure. England couldn’t hold possession themselves, however, so there weren’t many real chances in the first half. England had looked strong at the back, but Spain made a living at the last World Cup by wearing down opponents and picking off late goals.

This being a friendly, though, England could change out their entire midfield during the second half, which I think really helped. They also played more positively for the start of the second half which led to their goal. It was an ugly sort of goal and Reina really ought to have done better, but it gave England something to defend. For a time after the goal England actually looked much the better side with Spain a bit shocked that they were behind.

It was in the last fifteen minutes in which England really performed well, however. Spain threw everything at them, but England’s defenders, Scott Parker in particular, were everywhere. Spain’s pressure was repeatedly cleared they only got a few clear chances from almost a quarter of an hour’s worth of possession in England’s back third. In the entire match Spain had something like twenty off target shots. A couple were bad misses, but a lot were scuffed because of the English defenders weren’t letting them get away. Only once in the last fifteen minutes did Hart have to make a save, though Cesc Fabregas missed a shot that he would put away nine times out of ten. Spain also had a shot come off the bar.

Overall, England played very well. Much better than I or almost anyone expected them to do, however Spain played poorly by their (admittedly lofty) standards. A defensive lapse led to the only goal and Spain had chances to equalise and take the lead late that they spurned. That shouldn’t bother England too much, however, as few sides can beat Spain when they are playing on top of their game. England mustn’t get carried away, but they can be rightly proud of their performance.

There will be blood

Tomorrow (or later today, depending on one’s location) an ‘experimental’ England side face a full strength Spain. Even a full strength England side failed (twice!) to beat Montenegro and barely beat Wales (Wales!) at home. It’s not going to be pretty. Or at least the bit England play won’t; Spain will probably pass the ball around very fluently and aesthetically, however. I’m not sure why the FA wanted to play the current champions of everything under the sun in a place where supporters would be able to witness the carnage first-hand, but there we are. It’s possible, of course, that Capello may find some hidden talent that wouldn’t otherwise get on the plane to the 31st best hotel in Krakow, but it’s more likely that said talent won’t be a match for Spain. It’s only a friendly though, and playing Spain will allow the supporters to get into the right frame of mind for Euro2012. My pessimism won’t stop me watching and cheering on England, I should make clear, it’s just important to be realistic.

How crazy are Fifa?

Not so crazy that they have not allowed a compromise on the issue of England’s footballers wearing a poppy on Saturday, but still crazy enough that they aren’t making any sense. Fifa and the FA reached a compromise allowing the England players to wear poppies on black armbands on Saturday. It comes after both David Cameron and Prince William wrote to Fifa to ask them to reconsider their ban.

It was a slightly farcical display all around. Fifa’s ban made no sense, the poppy not being a political sign, and was indicative of the kind of insane bureaucracy at which Fifa is adept. They went so far as to order the referee to call off the match if England took to the field wearing poppies anyway. Their reasoning was that it would ‘open the door to similar initiatives from all over the world, jeopardising the neutrality of football’ thus fully displaying their well known detachment from reality. Their disproportionate determination on this issue was only matched by ~~lunatics~~ members of the English Defence League, who climbed to the roof of Fifa’s headquarters to display a banner condemning the decision.

The compromise, whilst certainly a good thing, does not make a lot of sense. In effect Fifa have agreed that their rule should not apply to poppies (or else they should not shown at all) without actually agreeing to back down from their position. What’s the difference between a poppy on an armband and a poppy on a shirt? Apparently it is all a matter of mindlessly sticking to the letter of the law in defiance of all common sense. Fifa, in other words.

There were 30 better choices

My attention was elsewhere when England announced the squad for the upcoming friendlies against Spain and Sweden, but I was paying attention today when the FA announced the accommodations for Euro 2012. (And I got caught up on on the squad too.) They will be based in a five star, £177/night hotel in Poland’s mediaeval capitol. Which sounds nice, but it is the 31st best hotel in the city and the reviews are mixed. (From the pictures, it doesn’t look much nicer than the $50/night hotel in which I stayed last time I was on holiday, albeit with more amenities.) Ostensibly, this is to try to strike a balance between the decadence of Baden-Baden in ’06 and the remoteness of Rustenburg last summer, but it looks more like an attempt to pre-emptively punish the players for a poor tournament. The 31st best hotel in a city 150 miles away from the nearest match is not a vote of confidence, but they may only need to stay for eight days. Furthermore, they will be training on a ground that is the very picture of Eastern European disrepair. (The Guardian have a lovely gallery.) Krakow is, by all accounts, a lovely city, but the choices of hotel and ground therein are odd ones.

We’ll be a bit closer to knowing the team that will occupy the hotel after next week’s friendlies. Capello has chosen an experimental squad to face the reigning champions, with four uncapped players. Terry is still in the squad, though, despite the ongoing investigation into alleged racist remarks. Lampard is expected to captain the side, however. Andy Carroll is not in the side, unsurprisingly given his poor start to the season. It is a squad mostly of players hoping to force their way into the Euro 2012 squad with just a few old hands in the mix. I expect them to struggle against Spain. The full squad is here. I’d be interested to see if England play someone besides Hart in goal. There is no clear second choice keeper at the moment, and Robert Green showed us last year how bad things could be if Hart goes down with and injury before the tournament.

Why can’t the Reds win at home?

Liverpool drew at home once again today, this time a goalless affair against Swansea. It is the fourth draw in six home matches and the third on the trot. This one was slightly different to the first three. In those first three draws we scored first before conceding a late equaliser and being unable to find an even later winner. (The two home wins followed similar patters, it’s worth noting.) This time, however, we nearly scored early before nearly conceding late and being unable to find and even later winner. Liverpool’s failure to turn pressure and chances into goals is starting to become an unwelcome staple of home matches. The Reds actually have nine points from five matches away from Anfield (plus all three League Cup wins) and ten points from six matches at home.

It’s late enough in the season now that it looks like a serious problem instead of just an early season fluke and it begs the question of why. Statistically, Liverpool play better at home than away (the Guardian have the season’s averages in several categories) but as mentioned above, we have fewer points per match at home. It’s not clear why this is, although Liverpool have clearly had a more difficult time converting opportunities into goals at home. Part of the problem has been the profligacy of Suarez and Carroll. Both are very talented, and Suarez in particular has created chances from absolutely nowhere time and time again, but both he and Carroll have conversion rates under ten per cent. This has been a feature both at and away from Anfield, but away from home Liverpool have been able to come up with late goals more often than they have at home. We did so at Arsenal, Everton and in the League Cup tie at Stoke (though we failed to do so in the league match at Stoke). By contrast, we are yet to score a late winner at home this season.

To be fair, the last two home matches have featured some spectacular saves by the visiting keepers to deny the Reds, but there have not been a shortage of outright misses either. (Of course I should point out that I’d be hard pressed to hit a ten metre wide target from ten metres out, but I am not a professional so I have an excuse.) This may, however, still be the main reason for Liverpool coming up short. The wins at home have been against Bolton Wanderers (19th) and Wolves (17th) whilst the three most recent draws were against Manchester United (2nd), Norwich City (9th), and Swansea City (10th). This would at least explain the dip in home form as a quirk of the schedule, though it’s still a problem; for the Reds to have any hope of being in Europe next year we must be able to beat mid-table sides at home. Finding a way to improve the Red’s goals to chances ratio must be Kenny’s main focus over the international break and hopefully that will cause everything else to fall into place.

Three from three!

It’s not often that I can get a hat trick sporting victories in a day. (To be fair, it’s not often that three of my sides play in the same day.)

England’s men started the morning with a T20 against India. Despite my earlier prediction, they finally found a bit of form and restricted the hosts to 120-9 off their twenty overs, though once again the death overs were expensive. Steven Finn was once again the pick of the bowlers with 3-22. Showing that they had taken the lessons from the ODIs to heart, India opened the attack with spin from both ends. This did tie down England to an extent, but KP was intent on breaking the shackles and did so to awesome effect. He hit 53 off 39 (5×4 3×6) deliveries before being adjudged LBW to a ball that pitched outside leg. By this time the match was all but won, and England got home with six wickets and eight deliveries to spare. Unfortunately England’s women were denied by rain after being well on top in their T20 match in South Africa. They were 15-0 chasing 111 to win and it’s probably the only way South Africa were going to avoid defeat.

Whilst that match was going on, Bath Rugby played London Irish in the Premiership. Bath won 12-13 thanks to a late penalty and some very good stoppage time defending. Bath were probably the deserved winners; ten of their points came from tries. They could have had the match well in hand, but Sam Vesty missed both conversions and a first half penalty. He was still responsible for eight of the points, however, scoring one of the tries as well as the match winning penalty in the 77th minute. The first try was the only scoring of the first half coming after Delon Armitage was sent to the sin bin for a high tackle on Tom Biggs. It was a very see-saw encounter with Bath coming from behind twice in the second half. The win takes them to fourth in the table.

To cap off the day, Liverpool beat West Brom 2-0 at the Hawthorns. The Reds did not play brilliantly, and showed why they dropped points to Man United and Norwich in the preceding weeks, but West Brom were awful. Their defence was nowhere for much of the first half and their offence only put pressure on the Reds a couple of times. Liverpool took the lead early through a penalty after Suarez was brought down. It’s worth pointing out that although Suarez gets a lot of criticism for diving and going to ground easily he stayed on his feet in the Carling Cup tie against Stoke when he could have had a penalty and made an effort to do so today. The West Brom fans were not happy with him or the referee, but their ire should be directed at their own defence. Despite efforts to put him off, Adam converted from the spot to give Liverpool the lead. Suarez continued to play well; though he still could not get the finishes that have eluded him in the league this year, he set up Liverpool’s second goal just before halftime. Carroll was the scorer, his third for the Reds this year, after Lucas stole the ball in midfield and Suarez put him through on goal. Liverpool’s defence held firm in the second half for just their third clean sheet this season. The only real disappointment for the Reds was Stewart Downing, who came close to scoring his first Liverpool goal, but hit the woodwork.