England v Italy suggestions

England play Italy in the last of the quarter-finals tomorrow. It’s hard to say who are the favourites; England have done better, but in an overall worse group. It is I think certainly far to say that England will need to come up with a far better performance than they did against Ukraine in the last group match.

In that match England sat back for long periods of time and whilst they did do a good job of soaking up the pressure, they never looked particularly comfortable. They looked weak in the midfield and very weak in attack. The one goal came rather fortuitously and even more fortuitously for Rooney who had been sub-par. He was not helped, however, by the midfielders putting balls into the box that were much better suited for someone like Carroll. I wanted Carroll to start before the match and he probably would have buried a couple of chances that Rooney did not, but the other players on the pitch should have known who was up front and adjusted accordingly. England were also a bit fortunate with a goal not being given against them, but it was a case of two wrongs making a right: the striker had been offside anyway. It was a victory, and ultimately more than they needed with France losing 2-0, but not convincing and it seems unlikely that such a performance will be enough for a win over Italy.

For that match, I think England need to start Carroll alongside Rooney. Rooney looked like he should have come off the bench against Ukraine, but hopefully now he has shaken off some of that rust. He and Carroll offer contrasting options in attack and I think the combination of them will suit England well. The obvious person to leave out would be Milner who has not done much so far, but our midfield looked weak anyway against Ukraine and a 4-3-3 might not help matters. That said, I think part of the reason for the midfield being weak was that they had little desire to attack. The strategy was to sit back and let Ukraine have the ball. A 4-3-3 might give some encouragement to the midfielders to get the ball and go forward. In the end, I would leave out Milner and play Walcott in his stead with Welbeck the unlucky man. (Though a probable sub.) There is a good argument to be made that Walcott’s pace is best used in reserve against tiring defenders, but I think England will need to play at a higher tempo against Italy from the word go and Walcott is a good way to do that.

If England play well, they can certainly win; Italy did not look terribly convincing in their group matches. I would put England slight favourites and am guessing a 2-1 scoreline.

Euro 2012 group permutations

The last round of group fixtures in Euro 2012 start today. Happily there is still quite a lot for which to play as the tournament has been a very good one so far. Here are the current permutations for all the groups, (assuming I worked everything out correctly):

Group A
No one is safe yet and all four teams can guarantee a place in the quarter-finals with a win tomorrow. Draws can see things get a bit hairy, however. For Russia, a draw is all they need to go through (and will send Greece out) and a win will see them top the group. If Greece can win and the Czech Republic draw with Poland, however, all three of Greece, Russia and the Czech Republic will finish on four points and the de facto tiebreaker will be goal difference*. This would rule the Czech Republic out unless Greece slaughter Russia by six goals or more. More practically, Greece would need to win by three goals or more to top the group in this scenario and cannot top the group if there is a positive result in the Poland v Czech Republic match. If Greece win and one of Poland of the Czech Republic win, that winner will top the group with the loser and Russia going out. In summary:
Russia – Win: top the group. Draw: advance and top the group if Poland draw or win by three goals or fewer. Lose: advance only if Poland and the Czech Republic draw with each other.
Czech Republic – Win: advance and top the group if Russia lose or draw. Draw: advance if Greece lose or draw. Lose: eliminated.
Poland – Win: advance and top the group if Russia lose. Draw: Eliminated. Lose: eliminated.
Greece – Win: advance and top the group if by more than three goals and Poland and Czech Republic draw with each other. Draw: eliminated. Lose: eliminated

Group B
Holland’s poor form has thrown this group open. The situation is similar to that of Group A: no one is yet safe, but Germany are the closest and can go through even with a loss. The only way for them to be eliminated is to lose by at least two goals and for Portugal to win. In such a scenario, Denmark would top the table with Portugal second and Germany third on goal difference. At the other side of the table, the only way for Holland to progress is to win by no fewer than two goals and for Germany to beat Denmark. Denmark can advance if they better Portugal’s result or if they beat Germany by two or more goals. If Portugal match or better the Danes’ result (or Germany are eliminated as above), it will be the Portuguese who will go through. In summary:
Germany – Win: top the group. Draw: top the group. Lose: advance if loss is by fewer than two goals or Portugal lose or draw.
Portugal – Win: advance and top the group if Denmark win, but by fewer goals. Draw: advance if Denmark draw or lose. Lose: advance only if loss is by one goal and Denmark lose by at least a goal†. (See additional footnote.)
Denmark – Win: advance and top group if by two or more goals and by more goals than Portugal or if Portugal do not win. Draw: advance if Portugal lose. Lose: advance if loss is by one goal and Portugal lose by one goal without scoring.
Holland – Win: Advance if by two or more goals and Denmark lose. Draw: eliminated. Loss: eliminated.

Group C
A slightly simpler group than the first two; here Ireland are already eliminated. Spain and Croatia are both on four points and the winner of their head to head matchup is guaranteed to top the group. Italy could advance with a win and and a positive result in the Croatia v Spain match. If that match is drawn, however, we could see another scenario in which three teams finish level on points if Italy beat Ireland. Here, all three teams would have drawn against the other and goals scored in their matches would be the first tiebreaker. Spain would be guaranteed to go through as they would finish level with Croatia and have a better overall goal difference (the next tiebreaker, see first footnote). A 1-1 draw would put all three teams level on goals and make overall goal difference the sole tiebreaker. This would mean that Italy would need to win by at least three goals against Ireland to advance and at least five goals to top the group. In summary:
Spain – Win: top the group. Draw: advance and top the group if Italy do not win or the score is 2-2 or higher (see above). Lose: advance if Italy do not win.
Croatia – Win: top the group. Draw: advance if Italy do not win or the score is 2-2 or higher. Lose: advance if Italy do not win.
Italy – Win: advance if either Spain or Croatia lose, top the group if Spain and Croatia draw 0-0. Draw: eliminated. Lose: eliminated.
Ireland – Already eliminated.

Group D
Similar to Group C in that there are two teams level on four points at the top, England and France, but for the bottom placed team, Sweden, the game is already up. The situation is much simpler, however, with France all but guaranteed already to go through and England guaranteed to go through with a win or a draw. England can advance with a loss and it is the only scenario in which France will miss out: if France and England both lose and France lose by a greater margin than England then Ukraine will top the group and England will be runner-up on overall goals scored. For Ukraine it is simple: they must win, but if they do they are guaranteed to progress. Both England and Ukraine can top the group if they win and France do not, whilst for England a draw and a French loss will also be enough. England can even top the group if France do win, but they will have to win by a greater margin than France. In summary:
France – Win: advance and top the group if England do not win or win by the same or a smaller margin. Draw: advance and top the group if England and Ukraine also draw. Lose: advance unless England also lose but by a smaller margin.
England – Win: advance and top the group if France do not win or win by a smaller margin. Draw: advance and top the group if France lose. Lose: Advance if France also lose and by a greater margin.
Ukraine – Win: Advance and top the group if France do not win. Draw: eliminated. Lose: eliminated.
Sweden – Already eliminated.

*The first tiebreaker in this tournament is not goal difference, but head-to-head result. However in this case all three teams would have the one win and one loss against the other two and thus the tiebreaker becomes goal difference in the matches between the teams. Since in this scenario all the teams will have drawn with Poland, the goal difference between them will be identical to the overall difference. The full tiebreaker criteria are in section VI, 8.07 here.

†Portugal can advance if they and Denmark both lose by one goal. They and Holland will all three be level with three points and a goal difference against each other of nought and the tiebreaker would then go to goals scored against the other teams. Portugal and Denmark each go into the match with three, but only Portugal have the ability to add to it in their match. Thus if they can score at least one goal in their loss, they will still advance in this case.

Euro 2012 preview

Euro 2012 starts this Friday. England go into the tournament with almost no expectation; even the new coach Roy Hodgson has tried to play down England’s chances. And having watched (most of, until I started to fall asleep) England’s recent friendlies I am inclined to agree. England won both of them, yes, but never looked better than scrappy. That’s okay if one can scrape out a win against an equal or better side, but a tough 1-0 victory against Norway is not really a credit. England’s squad, whilst not ridiculous, is far from inspiring. The only good move was to make Gerrard captain; apart from that the squad is made up of good players but only a few one would consider to be true international quality. (And I say that knowing full well the number of Liverpool players in the squad.)

The best news for England was probably the draw, which was relatively favourable. England are in Group D, which appears to be the second easiest after Group A. England will still have some difficulty actually topping the group, however, and it is by no means assumed that they will make it to the knockout rounds. The main opponent will be France and whilst les Bleus are unlikely to strike fear into any team until they can redeem themselves for the last World Cup, I would still be surprised to see England win. (Though I was not expecting the England rugby team to win in France during the Six Nations either.) England are also in the same group as Sweden, who England have not beat in a competitive match in some large number of years. There is also Ukraine. England should beat them, but they are good enough that if England don’t play well there is every chance that they could be held to a draw or even lose. Whilst one could see England finishing anywhere in the top three, my guess is that they will scrape to second. My second guess would be a third-place finish with topping the group a possibility, but an unlikely one.

The most interesting group should be Group B. A competitive Holland v Germany match is always a good thing, but this time it will possibly shape the entire tournament. With respect to Portugal and Denmark, the other two teams in Group B and certainly no pushovers, Holland and Germany are the strong favourites to make it out of the group and the set up of the knockout stages means that they will both have relatively easy quarter-final matches. Whoever finishes as runner up in the group, however, are likely to face Spain in the semi-finals whilst the group winners will have a much easier match against either the winner of Group D or the runner up in Group C. The winner of Group B should thus have as easy a path to the final as for which could be reasonably hoped and there is a good chance that the winner of the Holland v Germany match on the 13th will be that winner.

My prediction for the entire tournament is summarised in this bracket:

In more detail: Holland win their match against Germany and top Group B. Greece top Group A with Russia coming second, but neither provide significant opposition in the quarter-finals. Spain win Group C with the Republic of Ireland upsetting Italy to take the runner up spot. England play sloppily against Spain and lose, but give the impression that they would have had a chance if they had been more precise. Ireland have a chance to get some measure of revenge on France from 2010, but lose a fairly low quality match. Holland beat France relatively easily in one semi-final, whilst Germany and Spain dig in for a good match that Germany eventually win. The final is then an absolute cracker, but the Dutch reprise their group stage victory.

Euro 2012 draw etc

I was away doing actual work for most of the afternoon, but since then I have caught up on the details of he Euro 2012 draw. England were drawn in group D, alongside Ukraine, Sweden and France. It’s a pretty good draw, I think, though all of the group matches will be in Ukraine and England’s base is in Poland. (Surely it would have made more sense to find accommodations after the fixtures were set?) In fact, only if England win the group (unlikely) will they play a match in Poland (the semi-final).

England’s campaign will begin on the 11th of June against France. It will be an opportunity for revenge for the defeat at Wembley last year and the rugby players’ defeat in New Zealand, but more likely it will be a chance for another humiliating loss to France. It will probably also be the match that decides the group winner, although neither Ukraine or Sweden will be walkovers. If England finish as runners up their quarter final opponents will likely be Spain, so there will be a strong incentive to win the group, though the desire to not play Germany didn’t help in South Africa. If England do win the group they will probably play Italy, though there’s an outside chance that they would play the Republic of Ireland. That would be fun, but pretty unlikely. Either way I don’t see England going to the semi-final. Even less likely than a semi-final berth for England is one for a side from Group A. The quarter-final arrangements mean that two of Poland, Greece, Russia and the Czech Republic will face two of Holland, Denmark, Germany and Portugal.

It would be remiss of me if I didn’t look at those teams, make some vague and only partly accurate appraisals of their skills and use that to predict the course of the tournament. I’ll revise, or at least add specifics to this closer to the tournament, but for now my prediction is:
Group A
Greece
Czech Republic (Could easily switch with Greece)
Russia
Poland

Group B
Holland
Germany (Holland v Germany is 13 June, can’t wait)
Portugal
Denmark

Group C
Spain (duh)
Ireland (I am required to include at least one upset)
Italy
Croatia

Group D
France (I’m realistic)
England
Sweden
Ukraine

QFs:
Germany def Greece
Holland def Czech Republic
Spain def England
France def Ireland (via handball)

SFs:
Spain def Germany (probably)
Holland def France (easily)

Final: See 2010 World Cup. (Though I’d prefer a Holland v Germany final. What a match that would be.)

There will be blood

Tomorrow (or later today, depending on one’s location) an ‘experimental’ England side face a full strength Spain. Even a full strength England side failed (twice!) to beat Montenegro and barely beat Wales (Wales!) at home. It’s not going to be pretty. Or at least the bit England play won’t; Spain will probably pass the ball around very fluently and aesthetically, however. I’m not sure why the FA wanted to play the current champions of everything under the sun in a place where supporters would be able to witness the carnage first-hand, but there we are. It’s possible, of course, that Capello may find some hidden talent that wouldn’t otherwise get on the plane to the 31st best hotel in Krakow, but it’s more likely that said talent won’t be a match for Spain. It’s only a friendly though, and playing Spain will allow the supporters to get into the right frame of mind for Euro2012. My pessimism won’t stop me watching and cheering on England, I should make clear, it’s just important to be realistic.

There were 30 better choices

My attention was elsewhere when England announced the squad for the upcoming friendlies against Spain and Sweden, but I was paying attention today when the FA announced the accommodations for Euro 2012. (And I got caught up on on the squad too.) They will be based in a five star, £177/night hotel in Poland’s mediaeval capitol. Which sounds nice, but it is the 31st best hotel in the city and the reviews are mixed. (From the pictures, it doesn’t look much nicer than the $50/night hotel in which I stayed last time I was on holiday, albeit with more amenities.) Ostensibly, this is to try to strike a balance between the decadence of Baden-Baden in ’06 and the remoteness of Rustenburg last summer, but it looks more like an attempt to pre-emptively punish the players for a poor tournament. The 31st best hotel in a city 150 miles away from the nearest match is not a vote of confidence, but they may only need to stay for eight days. Furthermore, they will be training on a ground that is the very picture of Eastern European disrepair. (The Guardian have a lovely gallery.) Krakow is, by all accounts, a lovely city, but the choices of hotel and ground therein are odd ones.

We’ll be a bit closer to knowing the team that will occupy the hotel after next week’s friendlies. Capello has chosen an experimental squad to face the reigning champions, with four uncapped players. Terry is still in the squad, though, despite the ongoing investigation into alleged racist remarks. Lampard is expected to captain the side, however. Andy Carroll is not in the side, unsurprisingly given his poor start to the season. It is a squad mostly of players hoping to force their way into the Euro 2012 squad with just a few old hands in the mix. I expect them to struggle against Spain. The full squad is here. I’d be interested to see if England play someone besides Hart in goal. There is no clear second choice keeper at the moment, and Robert Green showed us last year how bad things could be if Hart goes down with and injury before the tournament.

How sweet to be an idiot

FT Montenegro 2-2 England. England played brilliantly for half an hour to take a 2-0 lead, and then proceeded to play appallingly poorly for the next hour. The big headline, though, is that Wayne Rooney is still an idiot. Rooney got a straight red for getting frustrated and maliciously kicking a Montenegrin in the back of the leg. A spectacularly stupid bit of petulance, almost as bad as his crotch stomp against Portugal five years ago. It is only tempered by the fact that this time a draw was all England needed, instead of sending them out on penalties.

The result means that England are definitely in Euro 2012, but that Rooney will definitely miss at least the first match. I’m not convinced that’s a bad thing. Since the end of his purple patch in the 2010 WC qualifiers Rooney has picked up as many cards (2Y, 1R) as he has scored goals. Will he rediscover his form before next summer? Impossible to say, of course, but I am sceptical. He’s never really impressed in the summer, and his success in the WC qualifiers looked more like a Harmison-esque form of his life, as opposed to what we should expect on a consistent basis.His absence will give England at least one match (and I suspect two or three) to try out a new attacking strategy, hopefully one that’s more fluid that what we’ve seen with Rooney’s statuesque demeanour in the penalty area.

None of Rooney’s antics should take away from the fact that England played as poorly in the second half as I have ever seen them. They gave the ball away time and time again. As such, they could not create any sustained pressure and with Montenegro steadily increasing in confidence and desire (with Wales beating Switzerland) England may have been fortunate to have only conceded an equaliser. Coming on the back of the shaky 1-0 victory over Wales it means that England will be far from favourites when facing up to competent opposition in Poland next summer.