Mumbai, day one: India 266-6

By the standards of Ahmedabad, England started much better in the Mumbai Test. The problem, however, is that Ahmedabad was so poor that even this improvement was not enough to be on top. India were 119-5 at one point in the day before a sixth wicket stand of fifty and an unbeaten seventh wicket stand of 97 wrested the initiative back. Cheteshwar Pujara scored another brilliant hundred and is still not out for the series. It really is much like Rahul Dravid batted in England two summers ago and England need to come up with a plan to counter him. But it is the runs of his partners that are far more alarming. On another day those runs might be only an irritation, but this looks like a low-scoring wicket and those runs might be very important. There is bounce and turn and it looks like it will only get worse as the match go on. It is a bit hard to judge as the conditions are so unusual, but it looks like three hundred is a good first innings score. Certainly with England having to bat last they will have wanted a handy first innings lead and the odds of that have dropped sharply and India are fairly comfortably on top after the first day.

England did play a second spinner, Monty Panesar, in place of Tim Bresnan which was not surprising. They did not pick a third seamer, however, choosing instead to stick with Samit Patel. I said in my preview that they should only do that if the pitch was going to turn from the first ball and to be fair it did. Panesar took four wickets in the day and two in the first session, though one was to the predictable poor shot from Virender Sehwag. But it quickly looked like England were a seamer light anyway because Stuart Broad had a terrible day. One of the advantages of playing five bowlers is that one of them can have a terrible day and the attack can adapt around this, but with only four bowlers and only one seamer England started to look badly lacking by the time the day ended. Panesar shared the second new ball and was not effective with it and Anderson bowled well, but the attack just looked tired by the end of the day.

This will increase the pressure on Broad’s place for the third Test. He has been under par for a few months, but today was truly terrible. Anderson kept it tight and looked threatening, but Broad did neither. Not only did he never really look like taking a wicket, he went at five an over as well and really let India take the initiative late in the day. There is still an innings and a half for him to bowl, of course, but one has to think that at this point he is bowling for his place in the side. If Steven Finn is fit for the third Test and England only play two seamers it is hard to see how Broad can play at all. Even if Finn isn’t fit or England do play three seamers Broad still probably has to improve in the rest of the Test to stay in the side. We all know how talented he is both with the bat and the ball and it is hard to drop him because a magic spell might always be just around the corner. But England can’t keep picking him in hope forever and if he can’t bowl better than this then England need to give someone else a chance.

The obvious thing England need tomorrow is an early wicket. Just getting one, especially Pujara, would expose a proper tail-ender. That is no guarantee of anything as we have already seen, but it will give England a chance of keeping the score reasonable. But after that they have to find someone to play an innings to match Pujara. The pressure will be on to get not only a decent score, but actually a big one on a pitch on which it looks tricky to bat. They might take some hope from the fact that it seemed to flatten out in the evening session, but there is every chance that it is merely an effect of the two batsmen playing well. The goal is still just about within reach, but the bowlers need to finish the innings off and then the batsmen need to follow Pujara’s lead and bat sensibly.

England second Test selection

After England’s defeat in the first Test there have been many calls to change the side for the Mumbai Test and particularly change the bowling which badly underperformed. There will be an enforced change with Ian Bell leaving and so Flower et al must decide how they want their batting to look as well.

With regard to Bell’s spot I don’t think the discussion should be very long; Jonny Bairstow is the only real choice. There was some talk about playing Eoin Morgan simply because he is left-handed (and India’s spinners had more success against right handers in the first Test), but there is no way that should matter. The fact that Morgan may have a slight statistical edge must not outweigh the fact that he is far from a Test quality batsman. Not only has he never made significant runs at Test level, he has never even done it at the first class level. He is in the side because of his abilities as a pyjama batsman and a wholly mythical strength against spin. He out to be watching the Test series from England before flying out in the new year with the hard-done-by James Taylor in his place. The other option in the squad available is to push Nick Compton into the middle order and open with Joe Root. After Compton’s relative success opening with Cook in the first Test I don’t think that is wise, however, and certainly I don’t think it is necessary with Bairstow available.

But the real focus will be on the bowlers. Stuart Broad and Tim Bresnan badly underperformed in the first Test and particularly in the first two sessions of the match in which India racked up 250-3. James Anderson did better, but all he could really do was try to keep it tight on a flat and slow pitch. But it is important to remember as well that the pitch never did a lot to help the bowlers at all and especially not on the first two days when India were batting. Steven Finn might have had a better time with his extra pace, but I don’t think Monty Panesar would be nearly as effective as most people seem to think. Graeme Swann was England’s best bowler, yes, but that says more about the underperforming seamers than anything else; Swann’s wickets mostly came to terrible shots. After England’s usual horrific collapse India’s spinners got another go on a wearing third and fourth day pitch. They took a collective 5-257 whilst their seamers took a combined 5-129 and that against an English side who play spin rather worse than the Indians. The pitch turned, but not sharply. Mostly it was just a road with marginally less in it for the seamers than the spinners. England simply contrived in their first innings to make it look a lot more spicy than it was.

Apart from the week’s worth of statements that Panesar ‘must’ be brought in for the second Test there have been also suggestions that Broad and/or Bresnan be dropped. None of the three are imminently unreasonable and I would not be surprised to see some change. But Finn has not recovered from his thigh injury as expected and has actually re-aggravated it which throws a spanner into the works for England. The obvious change was going to be Finn for Bresnan; now they have to wait to see if Finn will even take any further part in the series. England do have Graham Onions and Stuart Meaker still in the squad as possible replacements. Meaker offers pace as well and is the closest thing to a like-for-like replacement for Finn, though has never played Test cricket. I think, however, that Onions’ wicket-to-wicket bowling may be the better option. The umpires in the last Test only seemed to give lbws if the ball was going down leg, but they might have a better Test this time and even if they don’t England’s only success in the first Test came from consistent lines that kept the scoring down.

I would bring Onions in for Bresnan. Bresnan’s batting is making a slow comeback after his elbow surgery, but unfortunately his bowling is still miles away from where it was at this time last year. He got his place by bowling well in the warmups, but could not translate that into success in the Test. His pace is down and he does not seem to be able to get the ball to reverse swing much anymore. Stuart Broad has not had a great time either; since his eleven-fer at Lord’s to start the summer his pace has also been down and the only really good spell he had was in the second innings of the Headingley Test and that was against some declaration batting. He does, however, look more like he is simply out of form than suffering from a long-term problem as Bresnan does. He can’t be persisted with forever, of course, but I think it is still too soon to drop him. It was only nine months ago that he was running through the Pakistani batting in the UAE.

As for Panesar, I think he could play. But he should only play in place of a seamer if the pitch is a real raging turner, which by recent accounts it does not appear to be. In fact the suggestion is that it will offer more help (though not a lot more) to the seamers than the one at Ahmedabad did. If that’s the case I think the option is to either play Panesar in place of Samit Patel or not at all; England should certainly play three seamers though unless the pitch very heavily favours the spinners. It would be a bit harsh to drop Patel after he got two poor lbw decisions, but I prefer having five bowlers anyway and dropping him in favour of Panesar will give England flexibility to adapt to the conditions even if they don’t read them perfectly.

This arrangement would weaken the batting; there are only five specialists and a long tail. I don’t think England should worry too much about the tail though. Their deep batting has helped them get up to a competitive score or put matches away in the past, but mostly in England. certainly in the last Test and in the two tours last winter having a long batting lineup didn’t help. So with the bowling struggling a bit in the first Test it is imperative to ignore batting and just focus on who will get us twenty wickets. Nor should they worry greatly about only having five specialist batsmen (plus Prior). England could pick eleven specialist batsmen, but still would not get a decent score if they batted the way they did in the first innings at Ahmedabad. England have to just back the batsmen to actually do their job and pick a bowling attack that can turn that into a victory.

My XI for Mumbai: Cook*, Compton, Trott, Pietersen, Bairstow, Prior†, Broad, Swann, Anderson, Onions, Panesar

India win by nine wickets

As expected, England could not actually fight long enough to save the first India v England Test. They batted until lunch, losing 5-66 in the morning session and India comfortably knocked off the 77 they were set to win the Test.

England’s performance in the Test was a bit of a mixed bag. At the top was Alastair Cook’s incredible 176 in the second innings. He fought and fought before being undone by a ball that kept low from Ojha. There is nothing more that could have been asked from him with the bat in his first Test as captain. Matt Prior also contributed a pair of excellent half-centuries, the last one a 91 that deserved three figures. Farther down there was Nick Compton’s performance; he played well in both innings and got a couple of good deliveries. There is room for improvement, but he played fairly well overall and did nothing to be dropped. Samit Patel is in a similar category after getting a pair of poor lbw decisions. His place is in a bit more doubt though simply because he seems to have been picked more as a subcontinent specialist. Ian Bell played well in the second innings after playing the second-worst shot of the Test in the first and is already on his way back to England for the birth of his child. And at the bottom of the scale is Kevin Pietersen. The man who, stats notwithstanding, has been hailed by the likes of Piers Morgan as England’s saviour in India played two appalling shots to the left arm spinner to be dismissed for 17 and two.

The second innings was about as well as England have played on the subcontinent this year, but England do have to prove that was the new standard and not a rare exception. There is not a lot of time before the Mumbai Test and there is probably not a lot that the coaches can do in that time, however. England will mostly be hoping that the confidence from having played India’s spinners quite well for once will carry over. I don’t think this is an unreasonable hope, but they still must go out and perform.

But perhaps the bigger concern, and by far the more surprising concern, is the bowling. England’s bowling varied between ‘poor’ and ‘passable if not great’ in the first innings and never did what was hoped in the second. Part of the problem was the loss of an important (not match-deciding by any means, but still important) toss and having to bowl on a very flat pitch, but it was not until tea on the first day that they worked out that they had to keep it tight and never were very penetrating. They can take some consolation in that they did get Tendulkar and the much-heralded Virat Kohli out cheaply, but that is about it. England’s seam attack was brilliant last winter in the subcontinent, but they were not nearly as good in the summer in England and they were not great here. The only one to come out with any dignity at all was James Anderson who at least worked out how to keep it tight.

There are always going to be fluctuations in form, of course, but the fact that what was a very strong attack seems to have gone so far off the boil has to trouble England. Steven Finn will likely be back for the second Test and that should be an improvement, but the rest of the attack still have to step up. Stuart Broad is the vice captain now, but apart from the odd spell here and there he has not had a really good Test since the first one of the summer. He was very good in the UAE though. Tim Bresnan did very well in the warmups, but he has not looked the same in Tests since his elbow operation last year and was very poor in this match. There is a strong suggestion, almost an assumption in some quarters, that Monty Panesar should play in Mumbai and one or both of Broad and Bresnan should be dropped. But although Swann was England’s best bowler, it is worth noting that India’s spinners did not have a great time in the second innings and Flower’s aversion to two full-time spinners is well founded historically. I don’t think Panesar would have had any effect on this game at all.

England should not be without hope. They proved that they can play spin, even if not in the absolute most trying circumstances and Pietersen apart they seem to have hit upon the right approach. That does not mean that they will actually perform a second time and they still have the luck of the toss with which to contend, of course, but the fact that they did much better this Test than last winter is something to carry forward. They can also remember that the last time England won in India it was a comeback after losing the first Test. But hope is one thing. They have to actually learn the lessons of this Test and play better in Mumbai.

Ahmedabad day four: England 340-5

There will be a fifth day of the first India v England Test. At the start of today’s play I did not think there would be and halfway through today’s play I though there definitely not be a fifth day. But Alastair Cook has played an innings of legend. That’s not an exaggeration; he is 168 not out over night having spent a mammoth eight hours and 22 minutes at the crease so far and having been on the field for all of the first two days. During the course of today he became the first player to ever score a hundred in his first three innings as Test captain and also passed the English record for longest innings following-on. There is no way to overemphasise his innings; he has kept England alive in this Test when they really have no right to be. He can now also draw serious comparison to Mike Atherton and the epic ten hour 43 minute defiance at Johannesburg; there is still another two and some hours to go to match that and India will be a lot fresher in the morning, but the scale is comparable and we will have to see how close he can come.

But an Atherton-esque innings needs a Jack Russell to partner him and Matt Prior has filled that role. Prior came in with England 199-5 after Ian Bell and Samit Patel had gone to successive deliveries and took very little time to get settled in. The only time he really looked nervy was when tea was approaching and he suddenly started trying to sweep every single delivery. But before and after that he showed not only good composure, but a good mix of attack and defence. He kept the scoreboard ticking over without looking troubled whilst his captain was immovable at the other end. Like with Cook and Compton last night it was exactly how England should play and by the time stumps came India were clearly tired and even a bit desperate.

It was a great fightback by England, but of course to fight back they have to have been behind and the first half of the day was, whilst not nearly as bad as the first half of any of the other days, still bad enough that they were 199-5. Nick Compton, Jonathan Trott and Ian Bell all got out to good deliveries and all had actually looked okay before then. Bell in particular had been timing the ball beautifully and was much more relaxed than in his brief first stay at the crease. There has been, and will still be, some suggestion that Bell should not get his place in the XI back for the third Test and whilst part of that depends on how Jonny Bairstow (presumably) does as his replacement I think it is a bit harsh on the whole.

To drop Bell now would be tantamount to dropping him for one absolutely terrible decision and if that was England’s philosophy then there would have been no need to reintegrate Kevin Pietersen as he would have been out of the side long ago. Pietersen provided a reminder of that today as well as he tried to sweep a ball of Pragyan Ojha from outside off. He missed and was bowled for only two. It was the second time that Pietersen had got out to Ojha in the Test and the second time he did so to a terrible shot. As much as he swears that he has no problems against left-arm spin, the fact that he so often gets out playing stupid shots to them suggests otherwise.

Poor Samit Patel though was neither out to a good ball (though it wasn’t a bad one) or a stupid shot; he was given out lbw to a ball that he had inside edged onto his pad. It was the second poor decision to go against Patel in this Test and it means that he will look like he fared a lot worse than he did. It is also another example of the importance of DRS. It’s all well and good to say that decisions ‘even out’ (though they certainly don’t even out reliably enough for that to be a good argument against the DRS), but they don’t even out for individual batsmen. What will be recorded for posterity is that Patel scored ten and nought; the fact that he was not out both times will be largely forgot and the fact that Cook and Prior were both reprieved will be of no help to him when arguing about his place in the side.

India are still strong favourites to win. England are only five down, but India will be refreshed tomorrow and England are effectively still 10-5 in the second innings. If the first wicket goes down appreciably before lunch then it will be a long road for England. They won’t write this Test off, of course, but assuming they do go 0-1 down they can still take a tremendous amount of confidence from this second innings. The England from last winter batted in the first innings, but so far in the second England have been utterly competent. Cook and Prior may have saved them, but it is all the top order together who have kept Ravi Ashwin to figures of 0-104 and the spinners as a group to 2-232 from 91 overs. Those sort of figures would have been unfathomable in the UAE. On a fourth day pitch England were never going to go out and score 300-3, but what they have done, Pietersen aside, is bat competently and correctly and they have done as much as any other side would reasonably expect. They can go into the Mumbai Test knowing that they can play spin.

And they also achieved a bit of a bragging rights milestone when they went to 301-5: it was more than India ever made in England in 2011. India’s top score in that series was 300 all out in the first innings at the Oval. England can now truthfully say that they played spin in India better than India played seam in England. I don’t think anyone would have guessed that at teatime yesterday!

Ahmedabad day three: England 111-0

It’s very hard to know what to make of the third day of the first India v England Test. England were appalling for the first two sessions. All of the problems of the past winter re-emerged as they were bowled out for 191 at the stroke of tea and forced to follow-on. England seemed unable to find any sort of middle ground between playing a nervous and ill-fated prod at every delivery and trying to be ‘positive’ and slog everything out of the ground. Ian Bell was the most disappointing. He is such a good player, he has such good technique and can be a genuine world beater. But today he danced down the track to his first ball miscued his slog and was caught at mid-on. It was such an inexplicably poor shot from a player who really should know better and seemed to exemplify all England’s problems this year. After Cook was out for 41 the only resistance was from Prior with a bit of help from the tail-enders. Samit Patel did look okay, but got a dreadful lbw decision.

The question at tea was for how long England might be able to drag the match out and even whether we would have anything to watch tomorrow. Cook and Compton had looked assured in the first innings before Compton got a good ball and the wheels fell off. This time they looked composed and just stayed looking composed. There were two let offs: a very tough dropped catch at slip and an lbw shout against Cook that was inexplicably turned down. But India were the ones who did not want DRS so they can hardly complain. Not that such reasoning deterred MS Dhoni who actually started remonstrating with the umpires very early on and should pay a visit to the match referee sometime tonight. Cook and Compton got through and put on a hundred partnership, a decent feat in their first match batting together and England managed to close on 111-0.

It really was a stunning turnaround; England went from their usual subcontinent horror show to one of their best sessions all year. Despite looking utterly unable to find a suitable middle ground in the way they played spin in the first two sessions in the day they suddenly hit upon an excellent one in the course of twenty minutes at tea. I can not think of a more dramatic change in the fortunes of a batting team between two sessions that I have seen and England must be congratulated for that. Hopefully they can put up a good team total in this innings and then have some confidence going into batting in the next three Tests.

Unfortunately though, having confidence is about all they can hope for as it very much is too late in this Test. England have batted superbly well in this last session, but they did need things to go their way when the batsmen were getting settled and they will need those things to go their way again after a wicket does eventually fall. Not only do they just need luck in the deliveries faced, they need the batsmen to go out with the mentality and plan of Cook and Compton. Trott is in at number three and he could bat long if he gets in, but after that there are not many batsmen who really excel at batting for time. Kevin Pietersen and Ian Bell both could play excellent innings if they get in. But Pietersen looks very unlikely to play himself in and focus on rotating the strike and putting bad balls away. Bell might do better, but he has to banish what seem now to be some very nasty mental daemons when batting against spin. Patel looked okay, but his ability to bat long is untested and Matt Prior was also good today but tends to bat with the tail and might not be in a position to settle in for an innings.

The upshot of all that is that once England lose their first wicket or two they will probably lose the next eight much faster. It isn’t guaranteed, of course, but they will really want Cook, Compton and Trott to bat for a long time to have much hope. Even if that happens England face the problem that the first innings performance was so bad that even if they scored at three an over to lunch on day five, almost certainly an unrealistic notion for the reasons above, they would still only set India about 150 to win in two sessions. They would still be almost certain to lose from there. It really would take a miracle for England to get anything out of this Test, but it is the first of four and they need to use the rest of this innings to prepare for the next three. If they can get some form and confidence against spin they will still have a good chance to come back in the series.

Ahmedabad day two: England 41-3

The second day of the India v England series could have actually been worse for England. They did not get the early wickets they wanted and in fact did not get any wickets in the morning session at all. But after that they bowled a bit better and got a lot luckier in the afternoon and first part of the evening session to get four wickets. India declared on ‘only’ 521-8. That’s still a big score, of course, but there have been more than one time in this match in which India looked like they could comfortably get to six hundred if they so chose. But England were lucky to even restrict them that much. Yesterday Graeme Swann undid Virat Kohli with a brilliant delivery and England did induce a few chances that went down. Today Yuvraj Singh contrived to get himself out to a full toss from Patel, MS Dhoni gloved a sweep onto his stumps and Ravi Ashwin edged a wide long-hop from Kevin Pietersen behind. If one wanted to really give England credit then one could say that the Singh wicket was the product of choking off the runs before that, but that would be very generous. The only wicket England really took was that of Zaheer Khan and that hardly counts.

England never did get Cheteshwar Pujara out either. He played a fantastically composed innings for 206* and looked not only like a proper Test player, but a like-for-like replacement for Rahul Dravid at number three. It is certainly very good news for India as he looked like he would be able to play even outside the subcontinent. What will really annoy England though is that their misjudgement/drop yesterday ended up costing 198 runs. Pujara was one of only three batsmen to go past fifty runs in India’s first innings and although that was mostly due to careless batting England still should look back and think that India could have been closer to 323-9. Obviously everything else would not have gone exactly the same, but I think it is still illustrative of how the fielding has to improve.

Of course as much as England would have liked the bowling to have done better the real question was always going to be the batting and that got off to a poor start. Alastair Cook and Nick Compton looked okay against the spinners for a while, but there was quite a bit of turn and bounce and eventually one got through Compton. He left a bit of a gate which should not have happened, but mostly it was a good ball and he had played fairly well up until then. It was disappointing, but far from a disaster. But then England sent in Jimmy Anderson as a nightwatchman. This has been their policy, but it is much like their dogged refusal to play five bowlers: questionable, but so well established it seems pointless to argue. Against two spinners getting turn Anderson lasted about as long as one would expect a number eleven to last. Trott had to rush in to bat anyway, was out quickly and by the time it was all over it was a disaster.

It was certainly an inauspicious start to England’s batting on the subcontinent and England are now in a spot of bother in the Test. But there are some positives. Losing wickets late in a day is no guarantee of how things will go afterward; it happens all the time outside of the subcontinent too. One of the wickets was also the nightwatchman, so England are effectively still 39-2. It’s still not good, far from it, but nor is it as bad. And England do still have plenty of batting to come. Cook is still there having fought through the mini-session and Ian Bell and Matt Prior are still to bat. I would not rely on them, but there is also Kevin Pietersen at the crease and Samit Patel is in form.

Five hundred and twenty-one is still a long way off, but the follow-on total of 322 is much closer. I would not say that I am confident that England will get there, but they cannot be ruled out on the evidence of only 18 overs just before stumps. Avoiding the follow-on is only the first step and if England fail to do so I think they will almost certainly lose. But if India do have to bat again then they will not have a lot of time to force a victory. It’s a bit far in the future; India are still strong favourites and England have to just focus on getting a good score. But they still have a chance to get a draw out of this match.

Ahmedabad day one: India 323-4

The Test series did not get off to a great start for England. First they lost the toss on a pitch that was expected to break up quite a bit on the last two days and should be hard to bat last on. Then they realised that for the first day the pitch was an utter road. It was slow and low and with utterly nothing in it for the seamers. India finished the first session 120-0 with no clear chances even for England, though not all of that was the pitch. England bowled very poorly in the morning session; when it was clear that they were not going to get anything out of the pitch they tried to bowl too many magic balls instead of just settling into the choking off runs tactic. They were a bit better in the afternoon, they got a few wickets and created real chances, but it was not until the final session that they really worked out how to bowl on the pitch. England conceded 120-0 in the morning, 130-3 in the afternoon and then came back for just 73-1 in the evening.

The ongoing problem for England on the first day was their catching though. It is particularly frustrating as it was not so long ago that they were so good in the field, but they have really fallen off in that area this year. So far the most costly drop looks like it is going to be that of Cheteshwar Pujara. He offered an absolute dolly of a leading edge to James Anderson when on only eight and Anderson dreadfully misjudged the flight of the ball. To be fair to him, it is hard to read a ball hit on a directly to a fielder; one can’t judge if one has to go back or in until the ball almost reaches its apex. It comes up quite a bit with outfielders in baseball, but because it is easier to come in for a ball then go back for it they are taught to go back first if unsure and then come in. Anderson started in though and could not get back as the ball landed right where he had been standing.

That was the most costly drop, but it was not the worst. England could have had Virat Kohli out before they ultimately did when he edged Swann to slip and Jonathan Trott not only put down a sitter, but then rolled over on it and tried to claim the catch. It’s hard to say whether the easy drop was more infuriating than the blatant bit of dishonesty that followed, but taken together they were quite possibly the nadir of the day for England. It was absolutely appalling.

India are clearly well on top after the first day. England did well to drag them back after the first session, but they could not quite make the breakthroughs they needed in the evening to keep it quite close. But they are at least still in the match. England will be thinking that some early wickets today and they could keep India to what might be a below-par total on this pitch. But even below-par on this pitch will still be quite a lot and England will have to bat very well whenever they get the chance.

England’s selection was correct

After a tough first day of the Test for England there has been a lot of suggestions that England picked the wrong side. England selected three seamers with Graeme Swann the lone specialist spinner. Samit Patel is in the side too, but mostly for his batting and he is not a real attacking option. The seamers struggled badly and did not take a wicket whilst Swann was brilliant for his four-fer suggesting that England should have played two spinners. The notion is that Monty Panesar should have come in for Tim Bresnan who had a terrible day. But hindsight is a wonderful thing. Certainly England selected the best possible team at the toss and I would say that even with hindsight the calls for Panesar are rather misplaced.

I’ve gone over the stats about English spinners in India before, but the heart of the matter bears repeating: English seamers are better than English spinners in India. English seamers have more wickets at a better average and better individual performances in India than their spin colleagues. Yes Indian pitches are spin friendly, but England’s best weapon has historically been seam. That is the general point in favour of three seamers. But there are also the individuals to consider and it is worth noting that Swann and Panesar do not bowl well together. This is the eighth time they have played together in a Test and England have won none of the other seven whilst losing four.

A large part of the reason for that is that they are never both successful. When Swann has a good match Monty has a poor one and vice versa. (Or in some cases they both have been poor.) This makes a bit of sense because Swann and Panesar are very different bowlers. Swann tends to toss it up and spin the ball more whilst Panesar bowls flatter and darts it around. Sometimes one will be favoured and sometimes the other (usually Swann) but they never have both done well. It’s all well and good to say it is a spinning track and England should play two spinners, but it’s a bit like saying that Eoin Morgan should do well against spin: it looks good in theory, but it has been tried and simply does not work.

There’s also the fact that Monty also does not have a very good record in India at all. He has played five Tests there and taken five wickets at an average of almost 56. And although he looked a better bowler in the UAE it was because the pitches suited him. He was back to the same inefficacy in Sri Lanka. That’s not to say that it is impossible for him to do better this time, but that he needs to show that he can before he is picked. That would have to be in the warmups and Bresnan comfortably outbowled him in those matches.

The selectors do not have a crystal ball; they can only go on the data provided. The data show that English seamers do better in India than English spinners, that in Asia Monty has only ever done well in the UAE where his darts are more effective and that Bresnan was taking wickets in India in the warmups and Monty was not. They made exactly the right call based on the evidence they had and even Bresnan’s failure on the first day only shows that Graham Onions would have been a better bet. There is nothing to suggest that playing Monty would have improved England’s chances.

India v England preview

The warmups are over and there are now less than three days before the start of the first Test in Ahmedabad. England will spend a lot of that time assessing the fitness of Steven Finn and Stuart Broad. Both of them barely bowled in the warmups after picking up injuries so even if they are fit it would be a slight risk to have them both in the first Test. That does seem to be England’s plan, however. Luckily for England that is their only real question and the warmups went very well for the batsmen. The top six are set and have all been in the runs although they have not faced much spin of note.

For this series at least, India are fairly settled as well. Over the long term there are question marks over their openers and their pace attack, as well as for how long Sachin Tendulkar will continue playing. But For this series they appear to have established who will play. They look like they will stick with Virender Sehwag and Gautam Gambhir at opener and I think they will play the same pace attack that went against New Zealand. They do have another concern over the fitness of Zaheer Khan who pulled up in his Ranji Trophy match with what was said to be cramp; he did not play in the rest of the match and was apparently still not one hundred per cent fit still at the start of India’s three day training camp ahead of the Test. But this is hardly new and all things considered I would be surprised to see any change from the Indian side who played New Zealand apart from the return of Yuvraj Singh.

This series will very likely revolve around how well England manage to play spin. On paper one would likely say they are the better side; the only thing India have that England do not is Sachin Tendulkar. But a very similar assessment held true before the Pakistan and Sri Lanka series earlier this year as well. In those series all of England’s theoretical (and in the case of the bowling very real) advantages were rendered irrelevant by the inability of the batsmen to reliably play spin. Some hints of this problem have shown up on this tour; notably Yuvraj Singh took five wickets for India A in the first tour. But mostly England have not faced spin of note so it is hard to gauge how they will fare in the first Test. The batsmen have spent a lot of time in the middle against the much weaker attacks from the touring sides and the hope for England will be that the confidence and form from those matches will carry over and outweigh the novelty of good spin in the Tests. It could happen that way, certainly. But that is very much the optimistic view.

The batsmen will at the same time hope that they won’t have to do too much more than they did last winter. England’s bowling attack performed very well in similar conditions in the UAE and Sri Lanka, but this time they will have to keep that form up for four Tests instead of only two or three. But they appear to have a better balance to the attack and, early tour niggles notwithstanding, they have had better luck with injuries. Regardless of who gets the nod in the first Test they will have two bowlers watching from the pavilion who would walk into most sides. It will of course not be easy for the England bowlers; India have some very good batsmen. Virat Kohli is in excellent form, Cheteshwar Pujara scored a solid 87 against England in the tour match and one can never discount Tendulkar. But there are weaknesses, particularly the out-of-form openers. Also Pujara is very inexperienced and Tendulkar is nearing the end of his career. Overall it should not be a harder task than the one England’s bowlers faced last winter, but they will need to perform to the same very high standard as they did last winter and they will need some support from the batsmen this time.

For both teams this is an excellent opportunity. England have not faced an Indian side this weak for some time and probably will not again for some time. But India have a chance for revenge against an England side that looked last winter like they would struggle to beat Bangladesh A in the subcontinent. I think England will do better than is feared; I don’t think they will capitulate the way they did last winter. I think Cook in his new role as full-time Captain will have a good series, but I also think that the rest of the performances with the bat will be scattered. I expect a fairly low-scoring series overall as England’s bowlers keep the matches within reach, but ultimately I think India will get more timely batting performances and will win 2-1. It could very easily go the other way and I hope it does, but right now India look like slight favourites.

Last day of the warmups

England have one day left of their last warmup before the first Test. Most of the questions that England had at the start of the tour have been settled; they know who the top six are, they probably know who will replace Bell when he returns to England and although injuries have complicated the matter they have a good idea of what their attack will be. It’s been generally a very successful start of the tour overall and as a result there is not a lot left to be done tonight.

But that does not mean that tonight is irrelevant. England will resume on 118-0 in their second innings, leading by 305 after declining to enforce the follow-on last night. England have had a very good time batting in the entire match; the Haryana bowlers have been utterly ineffective and the pitch has been flat, meaning that all the batsmen have got to spend time at the crease. Getting them comfortable and confident is certainly a good thing, but the conditions in no way resemble those of the Test match and I don’t think there is a lot to be gained by batting on tonight. But what might be interesting is if England declared overnight and set themselves the task of defending 306 in a day on a flat pitch. That is much closer to a situation they might actually see in one of the Tests and might give a clearer indication of how ready the bowlers are. Tim Bresnan has been the pick of the possible replacements for Finn, but there has never been a lot of pressure. Even though this would still be artificial pressure it would be a lot more useful than bowling in an obvious draw and especially more useful than batting ad nauseam. It would also be nice to register the first win of the tour, which is worth going for.

Regardless of England’s tactics on the last day, I doubt anything will change for the first Test. The top six should be set in stone with Matt Prior at seven and it looks very likely that Broad and Bresnan will support James Anderson in the pace attack. All that remains is to get them ready for the first Test in the best way possible.