West Indies v Australia preview

Almost lost in the glare of the start of the County Championship (it was a very exciting first day) is the three Test series in the Caribbean between the West Indies and Australia. It should be interesting; the tour was finally scheduled properly ,ODIs first, and the West Indies emerged with a very creditable 2-2 draw. It sets things up well for the Test series, the West Indies looked much better than I think most were expecting and Australia are still in a state of flux.

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Ashes Wednesday

It’s not the traditional celebration, but for me the significance of Ash Wednesday is to watch Ashes highlights and videos. It’s right there in the name, and this year is a particularly good one for it, as we’re in the midst of a month without Test cricket. In that spirit, I’ve compiled a few of my favourites from YouTube. The first one probably the best musical selection I’ve ever heard. Enjoy!

Should Ponting retire?

Ricky Ponting had a much awaited press conference a few hours ago to announce that he was okay with being dropped from Australia’s ODI side. Not in so many words, of course, but he did not say that he was actually retiring from anything, just that he didn’t expect to be selected in any more ODIs. I suppose it was new that he had been permanently axed, as opposed to just dropped for the series, but I think most people suspected that was the case anyway. The only thing of note that he said was that he was not retiring from Tests, which was probably not cause for and entire press conference. In fact, as far as press conferences go it was probably most underwhelming since a few years ago when Nasa announced their discovery of microbes that used arsenic in their DNA*.

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The fact that Ponting will not be retiring from Tests would seem to confirm that he intends to play in the 2013 and 2013/14 Ashes. He probably does have a couple of years left in him, but if he had gone out now (or soon) he would be going out on a high. As it is, I think his form will fall away again, if not against South Africa in a year then in the Ashes. He has had a very good series against India, but their bowling has been worse than uninspired. It’s worth remembering that against South Africa, against a good attack on reasonably helpful wickets, he scored only 70 runs in four innings. Worse, when he played on a Hobart pitch that was most similar to what he will find in England he made five and 16 against a talented, but hardly world beating attack. If he stays on for the Ashes he risks being humiliated by England’s powerful seam attack. Ponting will very likely score runs in the Windies, and perhaps afterward as well, but right now he has the chance to bow out on a high. Staying longer will jeopardise that and I doubt it will be a good idea for him in the long term.

It’s a difficult situation for Australia, however. Ponting staying one would appear to be a boost on the face of it; he is in form and looks like he still has runs in him and at the same time their younger players do not look ready yet. Unfortunately they do not have very many series before the Ashes. After touring the West Indies next month they do not play again until they host South Africa this winter. If Ponting struggles, either against South Africa or later in the first Ashes series, Australia are effectively stuck with him through the 2013/14 Ashes. This is a very risky policy; I don’t think Ponting will bat well in the Ashes and whilst someone like Khawaja or Marsh may not be an improvement, I think Australia would be well advised to look for a replacement for Ponting sooner rather than later. That said, it’s very difficult to drop a batsman with the record of Ponting, especially before there is a clear replacement. I don’t expect the Australian selectors to do so, but Ponting has put them in what appears to be a no-win situation.

The best case scenario for Australia is that Ponting plays reasonably well through the double Ashes series, then bows out and Australia can find his replacement and get him settled into the squad by 2016. I don’t think that’s likely, however, and I don’t think staying on is a good idea for Ponting or Australia.

*For the handful of people who aren’t familiar with that incident, Nasa publicised the press conference several days in advance as an announcement of an important discovery relating to the search for extraterrestrial life. The fact that they had discovered entirely earthbound, albeit interesting, microbes made it rather a damp squib.

Endless ODI preview

Now that the two T20s are over and India have finally managed an away win in some format we can look forward to over a month’s worth of ODIs! I hope you’re all as excited as I am about the prospect of 15 one day internationals. After all, no one got bored senseless after five of the seven match post-Ashes ODI series so the best thing to do is double that number and make sure that four of the matches will be between teams about whom the locals do not care.

Looking at the teams, I can’t see anyone other than Australia winning. Australia did not have the same dip in form in the shorter format as they have had in Test matches, and they are still difficult to beat at home. They won the short series against South Africa recently, and going back farther beat England even after being hammered in the Test series. They did not do as well in the World Cup, but will have the advantage of the conditions this time.

The more (but still not very) interesting question is who they will play in the final. India have finally broken their overseas duck, but almost anything can happen in a T20. They still have a lot of questions to be answered about their batting in foreign conditions, however, none of the problems they had in the Test series will entirely vanish in the shorter form, even if their bowling may tighten up. We saw in England that they still struggle, even against a decidedly mediocre ODI side and I expect them to struggle playing Australia.

Sri Lanka are punching above their weight right now, I’d say. Their players have not been paid properly for quite some time now, and eventually that will take a toll on even the most committed cricketer. The fact that they still managed a famous win in Durban is a massive credit to their spirit. They are another side, however, who have not been threatening outside the subcontinent, losing the ODI series in England and South Africa.

The second finalist will probably be decided by the winner of the head to head matches between India and Sri Lanka and those will be interesting, if sparsely attended. Neither side is suited to exploit the weaknesses of the other side in the conditions. I would expect Sri Lanka to win though, they have shown more fight recently and I think that will count for a lot. Ultimately, I expect Australia to beat Sri Lanka 2-0 in the finals.

Adelaide thoughts

The Adelaide Test is over, and I have not watched as much of it as I feel like I should. On the other hand, the bits that I have seen have been pretty much the same as the first three Tests, but there have been some interesting points:

– Most interesting was that Clarke did not enforce the follow-on despite having a huge first innings lead. The only reason for this I can think is that he wanted to rest his bowlers in the heat, but I think it was a bad idea. It didn’t make a difference to the result, but India did get 400 in the second innings at Sydney (their only score of note admittedly) and it seems unreasonable to jeopardise the match by scoring needless runs. It is the last Test of the home series and only Siddle played in the first five. They can (and maybe should) rest in the ODIs, but first they have a Test to win.

– After Clarke did declare, the declaration batting was fairly poor. Most notable was Haddin, who scored so slowly he provoked a seemingly outraged calling of the side in by Clarke. I understand that he is badly in need of runs, but after playing terrible shots for the better part of a year, the declaration was not the time to suddenly start scratching around. It was selfish play, and it in it’s own way was just as bad as his flashes in Cape Town and Hobart.

– It’s no surprise that Sehwag played like an idiot, but as captain some measure of restraint may have been warranted. In the second innings he was opening the batting in a nominal chase of 500, but in practise the goal would have been to bat out the draw and punish Clarke for not making them follow-on. It was a time for the captain to lead from the front and dig in. Instead he continued to throw his bat at everything, rode his luck past fifty (five aerial edges) and finally played a heave to the spinner that was an insult to the game. It was the very antithesis of a captain’s innings and whilst I’m not optimistic, there ought to be repercussions for his behaviour.

Australia win by an innings and 37 runs

The third Test is over after seven sessions, three overs and two balls. India actually played well through most of the morning. Dravid batted with more fluency and Kohli finally looked like a proper Test player. They were helped by Australia not hitting the right lines and lengths as often as they would like. There were quite a few good balls that troubled the Indian batsmen, but most were too wide of off stump. To be fair, the way India had played previously in the series suggested that they would chase wide ones, but they didn’t today. Dravid was finally undone by a full straight one that took out leg stump though and that just about ended India’s hopes. Dhoni mad eonly two and the tailenders collapsed in a heap after lunch. Kohli at least avoided being stranded short of his hundred by being the last man out for 75. It was easily the best score by an Indian batsman in either innings and there were only two better totals at Sydney.

Despite showing some relative fight in this match, the fact is that the Indian batsmen have been abject for about six months now. Their only batsman to hit a century in England or Australia is Rahul Dravid and their top seven average under 30. In 14 innings now they have gone past 300 only once and been bowled out for under 200 five times. It simply isn’t acceptable for a Test side to bat so poorly. Laxman ought not to play another Test and if current form continues Dravid may need to be shown the door before too much longer as well. Sehwag ought never to play outside India again. Gambhir has bought himself some time, but still does not look properly convincing and Tendulkar’s form is slipping away as well. There is a strong case to be made that only Virat Kohli should still be regularly playing for India in twelve month’s time. He looked much more assured this innings and his talent has started to show, but he also has a little way to go before he is a good, consistent player. I don’t think Australia tested him with short stuff enough in this innings.

India’s bowling is better, and they came out well yesterday to dismiss Australia for a reasonable total, but they are still not good enough. They have the talent, certainly, but they do not seem to be cut out for the rigours of Test cricket. They will often bowl very well for a spell, put the opposition under a bit of pressure and then give up. It was painfully clear at Sydney when Australia went from 37-3 to 600-something, but we also saw it in the second innings at Lord’s last year and to an extent at Trent Bridge as well. Duncan Fletcher must find a way to remind them that they will have to bowl at least for the better part of a day in most Tests and they are expected to make an effort throughout that time.

Australia for their part did enough. As poor as India’s batting was, part of that was because of the skill of the Australian seam quartet. Harris proved an admirable replacement for Pattinson, which was not a surprise, but what was a bit surprising was how well Mitchell Starc did as the fourth seamer. He did all right against New Zealand, but I hadn’t bee too impressed with him. Here he was helped by the conditions, as were all the bowlers, and he looked very good. He was getting a lot of swing and for the most part pitching the ball up. The ball that got Tendulkar was an excellent one, although it was not played well. It begs the question of who will miss out in Adelaide when presumably Nathan Lyon will return.

On the flat Adelaide wicket it could actually be a batsman to miss out, since they won’t be as needed. There are certainly a few candidates; after the openers put on a combined 254 the next nine only managed 110 between them and the highest score was from a bowler, Siddle. If they do decide to drop a batsman (which is a big ‘if’) it would probably be Marsh. After a good start to his Test career he has looked out of his depth in the past two series. He is probably the front runner to miss out when Watson returns. There is still the matter of Ponting and Hussey though; as well as they did in the last Test they still will not be around forever and must still always be considered when there is talk of dropping a batsman. Were I the one to make the decision though, I would play five bowlers at Adelaide with Marsh missing out for Lyon.

That said, it almost looks like it won’t matter. India have played so poorly, and been so far gone in this series that Australia could probably field their ‘A’ side and be in with a shout. India can at least look forward to Adelaide as being the end of their torment, but if they don’t make radical changes their next series won’t be any better.

Cricket Australia have a new policy

Cricket Australia announced details of their new rotation policy today. Instead of a ‘horses for courses’ style squad policy, however, they are planning to rest their major players for ‘minor’ series and use those to blood youngsters. On the face of it that is a pretty good plan, however I don’t know how well it will work in the specific circumstances for Australia. The biggest problem they face is that they won’t play a lot of minor cricket over the next few years. Between the upcoming tour to the West Indies and the 2015 Ashes they will only play eight Tests that would probably be considered ‘minor’, and three of those are against Pakistan who could be a vastly improved side when the play in October of 2014. In that same time they have home and away series against England, India and South Africa.

Australia are probably well advised to find a way to blood young players and limit their workload though. Their young bowlers have done a fantastic job this winter (though that is not limited to Australia), but they have also been hampered by injuries. It may just be bad luck, but They have had a batsman and two bowlers go down after just a few Tests each. (Just one Test in the case of Pat Cummins.) They were forced to play young players against New Zealand because of the number of injuries they had. If rotating players in for just a few Test matches will build up their fitness it is certainly a good idea to do so.

Ultimately I think this is a good idea in principle, but perhaps not in practice. In addition to not having a lot of opportunities to implement it, I’m not sure they really have a squad with which to do so either. Most of the young players have already come into the side, and more must do so soon when Ponting and Hussey retire. The only real candidates would be amongst the bowlers and even then they seem to be lucky if they have enough fit ones to make rotation possible. I think it would have been advisable to use a rotation policy where feasible, but not announce it as the default position.

Australia win by an innings and 68 runs

It was actually a lot closer than I thought it would be. India batted very well in the morning session, only losing Gambhir, and scoring at a frenetic rate. There always seems to be the looming spectre of a collapse about India’s batting, however, regardless of how assured any two of them may look during a partnership. Today the collapse was started in possibly the most ridiculous manner possible, when Michael Clarke brought himself onto bowl in an effort to get through the last few overs before the new ball quickly and ended up getting Sachin Tendulkar caught at slip via a dreadful drop by Haddin. It was just about as farcical as one could imagine, but it meant that a new batsman, Kohli, would come in to face the new ball. Just before Tendulkar was out the score was 271-3. Seven overs later the score was 286-7. The surprising bit for me was that India’s tail did not carry on in the same manner, to which I have become accustomed. The tail wagged quite a lot, with Ashwin scoring 62 and Zaheer Khan a rapid-fire 35. There was a point at which another sub-300 score looked quite likely, but the lower order did manage to save some face for India.

The result leaves the question of where the two sides, especially India, go from here. The series is effectively over, so India could take this opportunity to experiment with some younger batsmen. Sehwag and Laxman in particular look like they could use some time to reassess their technique, so leaving them out on one of the quicker tracks in the world, Perth, may not be a bad strategy. It is very important that they start to blood some youngsters in unfamiliar conditions. Raina in England and Kohli in Oz have been badly exposed in conditions more suited to bowlers than the ones to which they are used and they and Rohit Sharma will need to find ways to overcome that. Better for India to give them a go when there is little to lose than at the beginning of an important tour as they did in England and Australia. I don’t think it will happen, given the selectors previous tactic of burying their heads in the sand, but it would be worth a go. It could hardly be any worse, certainly.

Australia are also faced with some selection headaches. In the short term Harris is back fit and whilst he does not necessarily demand inclusion, he has been one of their best bowlers recently. Last winter Australia played an all pace attack at Perth to very good effect and I don’t think it would be a bad idea to do so again. I think Lyon is a good bowler with a lot of potential, but he hasn’t done a lot in the first two matches and the WACA will probably not suit him. In the long term they have the problem that only the old guard scored runs in this match. Warner, Cowan and Marsh all failed as they did in the second innings at the MCG. Australia cannot rely on Ponting and Hussey for very much longer, but now they are in a position where they cannot easily drop them either. If the selectors are lucky Ponting will choose the end of the Australian summer as an opportunity to retire on a high, but this does not look likely as two months ago he suggested that he might still play in the 2013 Ashes. Meanwhile Hussey seems to be making scores at the exact right time to keep his place in the side. I think that as well as Ponting and Hussey have done in this Test the selectors must still show them the door quite soon. England dropped Steve Harmison after the 2009 Ashes despite the fact that he had a good Test because Strauss and Flower recognised that he did not fit into the long term plans for the side. Australia must do the same. Fortunately for them they will at least have some time in which to consider the matter.

SCG, day one

Writing this, I was a bit tempted to reuse one of my posts from the Melbourne Test match. Once again India’s batsmen self-destructed on a pitch that was only a little bit helpful to the bowlers. None of the top order got a really unplayable ball, though Gambhir and Kohli did at least get testing ones. Even then, however, they were guilty of playing too far forward at balls that would have carried over the stumps. Dravid is now starting to look seriously weak against balls pitched up at middle stump, he was bowled twice in the last Test and today he could only get the inside edge of his bat onto one and was caught bat-pad. All the rest of the top order batsman played without footwork at balls wide of off stump and got themselves out. They ought to have learnt better in England, but having failed to do so it is not surprising (although still disappointing) that they did not learn anything at the MCG either. These are supposed to be some of the best batsmen in the world, but a county batsman would have been embarrassed by this effort. Dhoni finished 57 not out, seemingly in an effort to show the rest of them how to play and single-handedly validate the decision to bat first. I had said before the match that I thought it was a bowl first pitch, and I think I was right about that, but once again India are under pressure and have only themselves to blame.

For their part Australia did well enough, but no more. In the first half of the day especially, their line was a bit loose and Ponting dropped an absolute sitter from Sehwag. Whilst their quicks have been very good this winter, they’ll be flattered by their figures today; I expect they’d have conceded at least 350 against a good batting lineup. Their top order also failed; Warner, Cowan and Marsh made just 24 runs between them. There was at least an element of good bowling to those dismissals, however, as Zaheer Khan made the ball move both ways. Marsh should not have played at the ball he did (and looked a bit out of his depth in the one ball he faced) but appeared to be trying to cover his stumps for the inswinger, which is not ridiculous. Unfortunately for him he read the delivery wrong and edged an outswinger to slip. Ponting and Clarke then put on a good partnership, although Clarke tried really hard to get out to a Sehwag-esque shot whilst still in single figures. It will be especially frustrating for India, as they dragged themselves back into the match with the three early wickets before Ponting and Clarke got into stride and took it away again. They can’t really rue any poor fortune though. Their bowlers display the same lack of application and general unwillingness to play a full Test innings as their batsmen. Dravid and Dhoni frequently look like the only players who actually want to win the Test match. For India to succeed they must either convince Sehwag, Laxman et al to play to their fullest extent or drop them. It’s a decision they ought to make as soon as this series ends.

Australia finished on 116-3, trailing by 75 runs and are well on top. If they can push on even just to 300 tomorrow India will probably be out of both the match and the series.

New Year’s Tests

Like on Boxing Day there are two Tests back to back this week; stumps in Sydney lead neatly into the start of play at Cape Town. Unlike on Boxing Day I’m not going to all but ignore South Africa, but the Australian match is on at a more reasonable time (for me) so I’ll still focus on them.

Australia still have a lot of questions to answer, despite their emphatic victory at the MCG. Their batsmen collapsed to 27-4 whilst trying to build a lead despite mediocre bowling and being under no pressure to score quickly. Their shot selection was poor, and not for the first time this year. Warner is a good young player, but he still has work to do on curbing his aggression. Cowan left a ball a bit too close, but he still looks like the most reliable member of the top order. Leaving balls is not something his compatriots have done nearly enough. On the bowling side, Harris is back in the squad, but not expected to play. After their strong performance at Melbourne that isn’t surprising, no bowler gave a performance that would be worthy of being dropped.

India are in a clearly worse state than Australia. Their batsmen still seem incapable of dealing with the slightest movement and worse did not even seem to realise that they could not play the same shots that they would on the subcontinent. There does not appear to be a lot they could change with regard to selection, after the performance in England there does not seem to be any point to playing Raina in place of Kohli. Their bowlers are not the problem, but they do not have the strength in depth to exploit the pace of the pitches as Australia have done. They must find a way to make their batsmen play sensibly, especially Sehwag at the top of the order. The age of the batmen make this look unlikely, however, they are fairly well established in their styles.

The pitch is expected to help the quicks as it has the previous two years. This will help Australia, and they should try to ensure that the pitches in the remaining two Tests do the same. I expect it will be another low scoring game then, and it will probably be decided by who does the best job of knuckling down. Australia will be happy with that; Dravid is the only batmsan who appears to be able to knuckle down and having been bowled twice off legal deliveries and once off a no-ball he might have a weakness that Australia can exploit. If he does fall cheaply Australia will be strong favourites, as India do not look like having anyone else who can build an innings. I’m predicting an Australian win by 50 runs.

I mostly ignored the Boxing Day Test between South Africa and Sri Lanka. The first match went the way I had predicted and the series did not look like it was going to be as close or as interesting as the one in Oz. Of course, then, it turned into a reasonably close and quite surprising match. I had underestimated South Africa’s ability to choke, especially on Boxing Day. They collapsed, again, and lost, again. It’s great news for the neutral like myself, as the series is now 1-1 going into Cape Town. South Africa still ought to win, but they never ought to have lost the previous match and I’m not sure they’ll be able to force a victory.

Prince has been dropped and Alviro Petersen will play in his stead. Petersen is an opener by trade and Prince batted at number six, so it’s not clear where he will bat at Cape Town. With Rudolph struggling a bit at the top I would expect Petersen to open and Rudolph to move down the order. Philander is also back fit, which leaves a slight conundrum for the selectors. Marchant de Lange was Philander’s replacement at Kingsmead and took seven wickets in the first innings. Morne Morkel performed better in the second innings though, and may yet keep his place. I would be tempted to give de Lange another Test in which to try to push for an extended run.

Sri Lanka shouldn’t feel like they need to do too much differently. A draw will be a good result in the series for them, and the pressure will be firmly on South Africa to win the match. Given their history when the pressure has been on Sri Lanka will feel like they have a good chance to at least draw and maybe even win the match. Their only injury concern (or at least only new injury concern) is that of Dinesh Chandimal, and he is expected to be fit to play. I’m predicting a draw, with South Africa on top but not doing enough to actually win.