Why can’t the Reds win at home?

Liverpool drew at home once again today, this time a goalless affair against Swansea. It is the fourth draw in six home matches and the third on the trot. This one was slightly different to the first three. In those first three draws we scored first before conceding a late equaliser and being unable to find an even later winner. (The two home wins followed similar patters, it’s worth noting.) This time, however, we nearly scored early before nearly conceding late and being unable to find and even later winner. Liverpool’s failure to turn pressure and chances into goals is starting to become an unwelcome staple of home matches. The Reds actually have nine points from five matches away from Anfield (plus all three League Cup wins) and ten points from six matches at home.

It’s late enough in the season now that it looks like a serious problem instead of just an early season fluke and it begs the question of why. Statistically, Liverpool play better at home than away (the Guardian have the season’s averages in several categories) but as mentioned above, we have fewer points per match at home. It’s not clear why this is, although Liverpool have clearly had a more difficult time converting opportunities into goals at home. Part of the problem has been the profligacy of Suarez and Carroll. Both are very talented, and Suarez in particular has created chances from absolutely nowhere time and time again, but both he and Carroll have conversion rates under ten per cent. This has been a feature both at and away from Anfield, but away from home Liverpool have been able to come up with late goals more often than they have at home. We did so at Arsenal, Everton and in the League Cup tie at Stoke (though we failed to do so in the league match at Stoke). By contrast, we are yet to score a late winner at home this season.

To be fair, the last two home matches have featured some spectacular saves by the visiting keepers to deny the Reds, but there have not been a shortage of outright misses either. (Of course I should point out that I’d be hard pressed to hit a ten metre wide target from ten metres out, but I am not a professional so I have an excuse.) This may, however, still be the main reason for Liverpool coming up short. The wins at home have been against Bolton Wanderers (19th) and Wolves (17th) whilst the three most recent draws were against Manchester United (2nd), Norwich City (9th), and Swansea City (10th). This would at least explain the dip in home form as a quirk of the schedule, though it’s still a problem; for the Reds to have any hope of being in Europe next year we must be able to beat mid-table sides at home. Finding a way to improve the Red’s goals to chances ratio must be Kenny’s main focus over the international break and hopefully that will cause everything else to fall into place.

Three from three!

It’s not often that I can get a hat trick sporting victories in a day. (To be fair, it’s not often that three of my sides play in the same day.)

England’s men started the morning with a T20 against India. Despite my earlier prediction, they finally found a bit of form and restricted the hosts to 120-9 off their twenty overs, though once again the death overs were expensive. Steven Finn was once again the pick of the bowlers with 3-22. Showing that they had taken the lessons from the ODIs to heart, India opened the attack with spin from both ends. This did tie down England to an extent, but KP was intent on breaking the shackles and did so to awesome effect. He hit 53 off 39 (5×4 3×6) deliveries before being adjudged LBW to a ball that pitched outside leg. By this time the match was all but won, and England got home with six wickets and eight deliveries to spare. Unfortunately England’s women were denied by rain after being well on top in their T20 match in South Africa. They were 15-0 chasing 111 to win and it’s probably the only way South Africa were going to avoid defeat.

Whilst that match was going on, Bath Rugby played London Irish in the Premiership. Bath won 12-13 thanks to a late penalty and some very good stoppage time defending. Bath were probably the deserved winners; ten of their points came from tries. They could have had the match well in hand, but Sam Vesty missed both conversions and a first half penalty. He was still responsible for eight of the points, however, scoring one of the tries as well as the match winning penalty in the 77th minute. The first try was the only scoring of the first half coming after Delon Armitage was sent to the sin bin for a high tackle on Tom Biggs. It was a very see-saw encounter with Bath coming from behind twice in the second half. The win takes them to fourth in the table.

To cap off the day, Liverpool beat West Brom 2-0 at the Hawthorns. The Reds did not play brilliantly, and showed why they dropped points to Man United and Norwich in the preceding weeks, but West Brom were awful. Their defence was nowhere for much of the first half and their offence only put pressure on the Reds a couple of times. Liverpool took the lead early through a penalty after Suarez was brought down. It’s worth pointing out that although Suarez gets a lot of criticism for diving and going to ground easily he stayed on his feet in the Carling Cup tie against Stoke when he could have had a penalty and made an effort to do so today. The West Brom fans were not happy with him or the referee, but their ire should be directed at their own defence. Despite efforts to put him off, Adam converted from the spot to give Liverpool the lead. Suarez continued to play well; though he still could not get the finishes that have eluded him in the league this year, he set up Liverpool’s second goal just before halftime. Carroll was the scorer, his third for the Reds this year, after Lucas stole the ball in midfield and Suarez put him through on goal. Liverpool’s defence held firm in the second half for just their third clean sheet this season. The only real disappointment for the Reds was Stewart Downing, who came close to scoring his first Liverpool goal, but hit the woodwork.

This, that and the other

Some short thoughts on the various matches I’ve been watching.

South Africa v Australia: First ODI
As I type this South Africa are 84-6 after sixteen overs needing 223 to win off 29 overs. Australia were marginally on top at the interval and Cummins put them firmly on top with two wickets in the eighth over. They haven’t looked back since. The rain was disappointing but Duckworth-Lewis gave a fair target. It’s also been really nice to see the lack of adverts on the ground. There is a plain rope around the ground and the bowlers run ups are marked with CSA’s facebook and twitter sites. Hopefully in the second ODI they will find a way to project their status updates and tweets on to the pitch. I know the technology exists.

Pakistan v Sri Lanka: First Test
Pakistan are in absolute control of this match after losing only one wicket on the second day. Sri Lanka bowled loosely at the start and it doesn’t look like they ever really recovered. (Though I could be wrong, I went to bed after about an hour. In my defence it was 02.00 in my time zone.) We saw in England that Sri Lanka no longer have any bowlers of note. Unless they can find someone to do what Stuart Broad did at Trent Bridge last summer it’s just a matter of hoping that they can hold on for a draw. Unfortunately for them, I believe it rains slightly less in the UAE than it does in England.

Marsielle v Arsenal
I have no idea how this match is going because Fox prefer to show matches between continental sides about whom I care little. (Not so little that I’m not watching between overs, mind.) So I get to watch Barcelona play Czech champions Viktoria instead. Yesterday I got to watch Inter Milan play Lille instead of either match involving a Manchester based side. Even more infuriatingly the Arsenal match is being shown on a delay, so they refused to even tell me the halftime score or show highlights. I would, of course, just watch the match later, except they’re showing it at the same time as the World Series. And it’s not like they don’t know. It’s the same broadcaster. They had an advert for the World Series at halftime. It’s times like this that I’m kind of glad that Liverpool did not make Europe, because if I’d had to miss the Reds in favour of some continental side I would be be very cross instead of just mildly irritated.

Rangers v Cardinals: Game One
Both sides have had very good offensive performances and won their respective Championship Series in six games. They scored a lot of their runs at opposite ends of their matches though, with St Louis consistently jumping out in front early and the Rangers blowing games open with late home runs. The big story for their Cardinals has been their bullpen performing brilliantly after some shaky starting pitching. They might have some trouble getting away with that against the powerful Rangers offence however. The Cardinals have home field advantage which may be important as the Rangers will definitely fancy their chances in their very small park. (They were 4-1 at home in the first two rounds.) I am tipping the Rangers to win, as unless the Cardinals’ starters improve they will find themselves in big holes early on.

Some things that are happening that aren’t cricket

Today England have been thrashed by India. But that is not the only sporting event; game five of the NLCS is tonight and Zach Greinke pitches for Milwaukee. Both the ALCS and NLCS are guaranteed to go at least six games, and if Greinke can get another win (he got the win in game one as well) the Brewers would be very much in the driving seat going back to Milwaukee for Sunday’s game. The Rangers have a similar edge in the ALCS, though the Tigers have a bit of momentum after finally getting their offence going behind Verlander and sending the series back to Texas. Their game six is tomorrow. My prediction is that the Brewers will win the next two games to secure the NL pennant and that the Tigers will force a game seven, but lose and the Rangers will win the AL crown.

That is my take on the cricket and baseball, which like all good sports are played on weekdays and weekends. Because anyone who values high workplace productivity over sport is not a real fan. It’s coming up on the weekend though so there are some lesser, but still fun, events coming up.

The most important one is this Saturday at 12.45 BST/06.45 CDT. Liverpool v Manchester United. Liverpool won last year’s fixture 3-1 with Dirk Kuyt netting one of the easiest hat-tricks in history. That was during Liverpool’s late season resurgence. This year they have had a slightly mercurial but mostly indifferent start. I think I was in the majority of Reds in expecting a bit more bang from our big signings. Suarez has been consistently impressive, however, and Carroll finally broke his duck so things may be looking up. United, meanwhile, are United and thus will be a) hard to beat and b) bring with them the most loud-mouthed and ignorant fans outside of New York. My prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Man Utd, Suarez scoring a late winner.

Still in football, this morning UEFA handed down a three match ban for Wayne Rooney. Seeing as England will play at most six games in Euro 2012, (and in reality will probably not play more than four) there is a chance now that Rooney will be omitted from the squad entirely. As I stated last week, I’m not sure that will be a bad thing.

Tomorrow morning and Sunday morning (09.00 BST/03.00 CDT) are the semi-finals of the Rugby World Cup. Wales will play France and Australia will play New Zealand. In the quarter-finals Wales played outstandingly well against Ireland; France played well enough as England imploded; the Wallabies were pretty fortunate to win, but beat South Africa in the breakdowns and New Zealand were shaky early, but settled down to beat Argentina fairly comfortably. I’d be pretty surprised if Wales and New Zealand don’t see each other in the final, but the All Blacks have historically lost when they shouldn’t and les Bleus have historically done the exact opposite of what everyone expects, so I’m looking forward to watching those matches.

How sweet to be an idiot

FT Montenegro 2-2 England. England played brilliantly for half an hour to take a 2-0 lead, and then proceeded to play appallingly poorly for the next hour. The big headline, though, is that Wayne Rooney is still an idiot. Rooney got a straight red for getting frustrated and maliciously kicking a Montenegrin in the back of the leg. A spectacularly stupid bit of petulance, almost as bad as his crotch stomp against Portugal five years ago. It is only tempered by the fact that this time a draw was all England needed, instead of sending them out on penalties.

The result means that England are definitely in Euro 2012, but that Rooney will definitely miss at least the first match. I’m not convinced that’s a bad thing. Since the end of his purple patch in the 2010 WC qualifiers Rooney has picked up as many cards (2Y, 1R) as he has scored goals. Will he rediscover his form before next summer? Impossible to say, of course, but I am sceptical. He’s never really impressed in the summer, and his success in the WC qualifiers looked more like a Harmison-esque form of his life, as opposed to what we should expect on a consistent basis.His absence will give England at least one match (and I suspect two or three) to try out a new attacking strategy, hopefully one that’s more fluid that what we’ve seen with Rooney’s statuesque demeanour in the penalty area.

None of Rooney’s antics should take away from the fact that England played as poorly in the second half as I have ever seen them. They gave the ball away time and time again. As such, they could not create any sustained pressure and with Montenegro steadily increasing in confidence and desire (with Wales beating Switzerland) England may have been fortunate to have only conceded an equaliser. Coming on the back of the shaky 1-0 victory over Wales it means that England will be far from favourites when facing up to competent opposition in Poland next summer.

Who needs sleep?

Tomorrow is set to be a busy day. My schedule is currently:
14.00 – 16.00 (CDT): Montenegro v England
16.00 – 17.00: Errands
17.00 – 20.30: Brewers v Diamondbacks
20.30 – 00.00: Phillies v Cardinals
00.00 – 01.45: Ireland v Wales
01.45 – 02.30: Tea (nonstop consumption)
02.30 – 04.15: England v France
04.15 – ? Sleep.

Luckily there is nothing on the calendar for the rest of Saturday. Not so next weekend: England have their first ODI against India, there will probably be a playoff game, a RWC semi-final and Liverpool v Man Utd. I can sleep on Sunday.

Tea