Congratulations England!

The England cricket team won the BBC award for Team of the Year and Andy Flower won coach of the year. I was rather hoping that Lancs would get the first award, given how no one expected us to win the title this year, but England are hardly undeserving. Although there were only eight Tests this year England won six of them and drew the other two. Whitewashing India was one of the highlights of the season. It is also only right that Andy Flower won Coach of the Year. So much of England’s success can be traced back to his leadership. England have lost only one series since he took over, the 0-1 defeat in the West Indies at the start of his reign. Since then England have won seven of out of eight series and drawn the other. Unfortunately neither Strauss nor Cook won Personality of the Year, but Mark Cavendish was hardly undeserving of the award.

My congratulations then to Andy Flower and the England cricket team. Hopefully next year will be even better.

Some friendly advice for Australia

This is a point upon which I touched last night, but now that Australia have announced their squad for the Boxing Day Test I want to go into more detail on it. Specifically I have this bit of advice for John Inverarity and Mickey Arthur: Do not attempt to shore up the bowling by playing one fewer batsman. I know I’m on record as wanting you to fail, but I’m being serious this time. England have been the most successful side in the world over the past two years which is roughly since we started playing just four bowlers. It may not be because we are playing four bowlers (correlation does not imply causation), but it certainly hasn’t been a hindrance. Admittedly, I would actually like Andy Flower to be a bit more flexible about this (since Matt Prior tends to score a shedload of runs and Stuart Broad and Tim Bresnan are perfectly good all-rounders we could easily play one fewer batsman; it’s not like we really need all of 710-7 declared), but I think four bowlers will suit you well on Boxing Day.

True, your quicks aren’t as good as Anderson and co, but really only Dale Steyn is that good right now so that’s hardly a criticism of your bowlers. James Pattinson certainly looks very good and the sooner Pat Cummins returns the better, for you. They look like they will form a formidable new ball pairing and Nathan Lyon is a proper world class spinner. Admittedly Siddle, Starc and Hilfenhaus aren’t as good, but they probably don’t need to be. If you watched India over here last summer you will have noticed that their batting occasionally looked a bit suspect. And by ‘occasionally’ I mean ‘anytime the ball was doing more than it does in the subcontinent’. Yes it would be nice if Cummins was fit and if you had a third seamer to match his skill, but you’ve already had Glenn McGrath. Don’t be greedy. Your bowling has not been your problem recently, at least not since the Ashes. Your problem has been your batting, which is why you don’t want to weaken that further to improve your bowling.

Since the start of the previous Ashes series your top seven average a bit over 34. The only countries worse are Bangladesh, the West Indies and New Zealand. England’s top seven average almost sixty in that time, so you are some way off the pace. You’ve certainly made improvements recently; Warner looks good and most of Oz seem willing to canonise you for finally dropping Hughes for Cowan. (Which seems more like a decision that ought to have been a given, but well.) Your middle order does not inspire confidence, however, and the last thing you need is to make it weaker. There is a rumour that you might play Daniel Christian as an all-rounder, but the easiest player for him to replace would be Marsh. Marsh who admittedly has been injured, but who may be the best batsman in the middle order. (It’s either him or Clarke.) Do not do that. If he must play it’s imperative that he replace Ponting or Hussey (where he could not possibly make the batting any weaker), but the wisdom of effectively ending one of their careers for the sake of what is basically an experiment is suspect. I don’t really see that happening anyway, given the support you have given that pair recently.

Ultimately, of course, I won’t mind if you just ignore my advice. You’re being paid to do your job and I’m not, unless you count the revenue I make from ads on this site. Mostly though you’re Australian (or at least working for Australia) and if you lose it doesn’t really bother me. Quite the reverse, actually.

Australia v India preview

I have been reliably informed that the Boxing Day Test at the MCG is the most eagerly anticipated day on the Australian cricket calendar and this year should be particularly good. (For the Aussies, anyway. As far as I’m concerned there is no way it could top last year’s Boxing Day Test.) Last time India came to Australia the hosts were starting to fade and it was only a year before India replaced them at the top of the Test rankings. That series featured one of the most contentious Test matches since the bodyline series and the tour almost ended early. I don’t see this series being quite so heated, though, as both Australia and India are some way from their peaks now. Of the seven Tests they have each played against England and South Africa in the previous 13 months Australia have two wins and four losses and India one win and five losses. Neither records could be seen as flukes either as both have looked distinctly ordinary, especially against England.

Australia have had more selection difficulties than India, though their bowling looks reasonably settled. Ryan Harris is unlikely to have proven his fitness before the start of the Test, so Mitchell Starc looks likely get the nod despite not particularly impressing against the Kiwis. Shane Watson is also struggling with his fitness, and if he cannot bowl it looks like Daniel Christian could replace him in the side. That said, England did very well against India with a four man attack, so it can be done. Given Australia’s batting woes I think it would be wise to lean toward more batting than more bowling, even at the risk of not having enough firepower to bowl out India’s batsmen twice. The big selection choice, however, is that of the batsmen. Phil Hughes has not done anything to encourage selection whilst Ed Cowan has scored a century against some of the Indian squad in the second tour match. This should make the selectors job pretty easy and I don’t see how they could possibly select Hughes over Cowan at this point. It is possible, of course, that Watson will be fit and return to open as he has done recently, but not only is his fitness a major doubt he will probably fit in better down the order. Shaun Marsh may also return to the middle order, and if Daniel Christian does make his debut it will be at the expense of a batsman. Any of them returning would mean that one of Khawaja, Ponting or Hussey will be dropped. The rumours have been that Khawaja will make way for Marsh, with Watson unlikely to be fit.

(Edited to add: Cricket Australia named a thirteen man squad for the first test and omitted Phil Hughes and Usman Khawaja in favour of Ed Cowan and Shaun Marsh. Ben Hilfenhaus has also been added, slightly oddly. The balance of the side is still in question, but it looks very likely that Ed Cowan will open.)

India also have injury worries, with Ishant Sharma having bowled only 5.3 overs in the first warmup match and taking no part in the second. Zaheer Khan is always a worry and he missed the first warmup match, though with no specific scare. India seem to be trying to reprise their preparations for the tour of England last summer and I think they’ll continue to get the same results if they do not take the tour matches seriously. Yadav did bowl well in the first warmup match, but that was not against a testing batting order. India are helped by the fact that their top seven select themselves; barring injury, Gambhir through Dhoni are all a guarantee. Ashwin will certainly be the first choice spinner and if fit Khan, Sharma and Yadav will be the three seamers. The ‘if fit’ is a major caveat though and there doesn’t appear to be a clear replacement if one of the first choice bowlers goes down. Although their first XI is much more settled than Australia’s they are also a lot more mercurial. Their batsmen are ageing and cannot be relied upon to make the scores they once did (as we saw in England) and the fitness of their bowling is very suspect. If all their players fire they are a side worthy of challenging for number one in the world. If not we get the 0-4 that we saw in England.

The two sides complement each other well; India are strongest batting and Australia are strongest bowling. I think the series will be decided by India’s batsmen. If they can dominate Australia’s young bowlers they stand a good chance of winning, but if they fail as they did in England they will find the going very difficult. I don’t see either side dominating the other and I think the Australian’s home field advantage will allow them to shade it 2-1.

Ten best sporting moments of 2011

I know the sporting year isn’t over yet. I actually had a conversation on Twitter about whether I ought to write a ‘year end’ style post or save it for after the Test. I decided to save my full year in review post for later, but at the same time I would be very surprised if anything happened that warranted an inclusion on this list. If I’m wrong I can always write a revision as well, so with that in mind here are my top ten sporting moments of 2011:

10 – New Zealand winning the Hobart Test
I know my Aussie readers won’t like this, but it was a pretty important moment. New Zealanders probably care more about winning the Rugby World Cup, but they had not won a Test in Australia for 26 years before this. Doug Bracewell may be a great find for the Kiwis and the conclusion of the match was one of the most thrilling you will see.

9 – Tigers winning Game 5 of the ALDS
I love watching the Yankees lose. I love watching the Yankees lose deciding games in the playoffs even more. But most of all I love watching Alex Rodriguez strike out to lose a deciding game in the playoffs in front of a very put out Yankee Stadium crowd.

8 – Royals winning a three game series in New York
The Royals spent most of the month of April this year in or near first place. (It’s true, look it up.) Whilst losing six in a row to the Rangers and Indians at the end of April basically put an end to any notion of contending, there were still bright spots after that. In the second week of May the Royals travelled to New York and won two out of three against the Yankees. The deciding game of the series saw the Royals score six runs in the second inning, including Eric Hosmer’s second major league home run and some terrible defensive mistakes by the Yankees. It was the Royals first series win in New York since 1999.

7 – Manchester United 1-6 Manchester City
It was the match that that caused the media to accept City as genuine title contenders. More importantly it was the match that made United supporters very cross and thus made Liverpool supporters like myself very happy.

6 – Australia reduced to 21-9 at Cape Town
With apologies to my Australian readers. Though as much as I enjoyed this I was more astonished to watch the innings unfold. On no fewer than three occasions I thought there must surely be a recovery, surely they couldn’t lose another wicket. I was wrong on all three occasions, as by the time the recovery did come I had stopped expecting it. Almost as amazing as the innings itself was the shot selection of Brad Haddin and the fact that he wasn’t immediately dropped because of it. Both defy belief.

5 – England winning the Cardiff Test
I already used this in my best moments in English cricket this year, so there isn’t a lot more to say. Nonetheless, it was incredible watching England go from just wanting a few wickets to Sri Lanka not even coming close to saving the Test and certainly belongs on this list as well.

4 – Virender Sehwag making a king pair at Edgbaton/Stuart Broad’s Trent Bridge hat trick
I’ve included these together for their similarity, not only because they both involve Indian wickets falling cheaply. Broad’s hat trick marked the end of the last time India would have an advantage in the series, but I think Sehwag’s king pair marked the last time India had any real hope. It was also a moment of personal pleasure, because Sehwag is massively overrated. He has a good record on the flat pitches of the subcontinent and that is it; his aggression is not suited for English conditions or anywhere the ball does a bit. After the second Test I read about and saw Indians claiming that he would save the series for them and I rather enjoyed being vindicated.

3 – Cardinals winning Game 6 of the World Series
I’m a Royals fan, but years of living amongst Cardinals fans in Kirksville made me rather sympathetic to them. (Though I always hated when they would gripe about ‘barely being .500’ or some such.) Add that to the fact that I hate the Texas Rangers and I was definitely cheering for the Cardinals in the last World Series. Even if I hadn’t, however, I think their multiple comebacks in Game 6 would have had to rank high on a list of best sporting moments, as it was absolutely astonishing.

2 & 1 – Lancashire winning the County Championship and England winning the Ashes
How could I not copy these from my first list? England winning the Ashes in Australia is the only thing that could possibly trump Lancashire winning the title outright. Neither had ever happened before in my lifetime and for them both to happen this year is almost an embarrassment of riches. I have little doubt they will be on a list of best moments in the decade should I make one in 2020.

Edited to add: The Guardian have produced their list of cricketing moments, but there is a lot of World Cup stuff at the expense of Lancs.

Saturday review – 17 Dec

After the thrilling start to the week with New Zealand winning in Hobart, it’s been pretty dull. I haven’t watched the start of the Big Bash; it starts at 02.00 here and in any case last time I watched Shane Warne bowl I had nightmares for about four years. (They stopped just over a year ago.) India played a warmup match against players of whom I have never heard and probably encouraged Australia with their performance. Outside Oz England announced their tour match opponents and Sri Lanka, still missing Murali (who has the third highest wickets per match ratio in history), lost the first Test against South Africa by an innings and 81 runs.

My favourite two articles this week were about Lancashire legend Roy Tattersall, who died late last week. Andrew Hignell in the Cricketer wrote primarily about Tatt’s role in helping Lancs share the 1950 title and Paul Edwards in Cricinfo wrote more broadly about Tatt’s life and career, both during and after his time at Lancashire. Both are fantastic articles.

There is an excellent ‘letter’ posted at King Cricket this week. The writers make some very good points and I’ll certainly try to bring my blog in line with their recommendations.

In Cricinfo, Harsha Bhogle has a good look at Australia’s recent captains and the differing tasks facing Dhoni and Clarke for Boxing Day. I found the historic look the most interesting of almost anything I read this week.

Also in Cricinfo (I spend a lot of my time there) Andy Zaltzman looks in his own almost indescribable way at Australia’s recent batting woes and at the form of dolphins hunting in the Tasman Sea.

Australia unknown XI v Indian out of form XI

The Indian touring party to Australia finished a two day warmup match yesterday. One could be forgiven for not having noticed this. With the Big Bash League having already started the XI against whom the Indians played (the Cricket Australia Chairman’s Invitational XI) was comprised entirely of players who weren’t contracted to play T20. With Ed Cowan having to miss the match for that same rather foolish reason (Jarrod Kimber wrote a good takedown of the decision in Cricinfo) there wasn’t a lot to interest a neutral spectator, such as myself. I had not heard of any of the players in the Chairman’s XI before now, though I certainly don’t have an in depth knowledge of Australian cricket, and it hardly looked intimidating. Still, a players-who-weren’t-good-stroke-famous-enough-to-play-in-a-fairly-experimental-T20-league XI should not have presented much of a challenge. With that in mind, Australia ought to be quite pleased with the result.

Although not a lot of the order made runs, the fact that the third wicket put on 226 will certainly throw up red flags for India. They fielded what would probably be considered their first choice bowling attack minus for Zaheer Khan, but they still conceded 398-6. Ishant Sharma bowled only five and a half overs in the innings, as he is nursing a sore ankle. He injured the ankle in England and with India’s busy schedule it has not been repaired. Australia have had a lot of trouble with the swinging ball (to say the least) and if Sharma cannot play a full part in the series it will be a big blow to India. Yadav was their best bowler in the match, but we saw with Praveen Kumar in England last summer that one man cannot carry the attack. The drawback for the Aussies is that the Indian batsmen mostly seemed in good nick, but with the Chairman’s XI bowling being as anonymous as the batting I don’t think too much can be read into that score.

AM XI v England XI

England’s opponents for the warmup matches in the UAE were finally announced today and the first match will be against a combined Associates and Affiliate XI led by Irish captain William Porterfield. It’ll only be a warmup match, of course, but it’s still a rather interesting matchup. There are three Irish players in the AM XI, Boyd Rankin and George Dockrell are playing alongside their national captain, and all played in Ireland’s World Cup victory over England last march. (And it wouldn’t be impossible for all three to play for England at some point in the future.) Thee are also two Scotsmen in the side, so the home nations are well represented. The match will be in Dubai and will be followed by a match against a PCB XI at a venue still to be decided.

The AM XI looks like a pretty strong side compared to the usual opponents in a tour match, which is a good thing I think. England have not played Test cricket in some time and it would not do for them to be rusty going into a series against a side who have been playing very well recently. It’s also nice to see the tour fixtures sorted at all since it’s only a month now until the first Test. I can hardly wait.

Who is the best bowler of all time?

In my post a few weeks ago about Tendulkar’s 52nd Test hundred I included a bit about Sir Donald Bradman being the best batsman of all time. There are considerable difficulties comparing batsmen from different eras, but fortunately the Don was so good that there is little need for any subjective weighting of eras. Unfortunately it’s not so clear cut with respect to bowlers. The primary statistic for a batsman is his average, and whilst more recent ones do tend to be higher they are still readily comparable. The primary statistics for bowlers are wickets taken and bowling average though and those are both problematic when comparing bowlers from different eras. Bowling average has the same problem as batting average, plus it compares wickets to the frugality or otherwise of a bowler rather than to the total amount played (as batting average does). Total number of wickets taken, usually the primary stat, is faulty because many more Tests are played now than in years past. Murali leads the chart with 795 Test wickets, (like Bill Frindall, I exclude the ICC Super Test) but he played in almost five times the number of Tests as Sydney Barnes. A more seldom seen stat, but more theoretically useful in this case, is bowler’s strike rate, a measure of how many wickets a bowler took per deliveries bowled. (Technically it’s the other way around I know, but my phrasing still measures the same thing.) It’s still not perfect, however. It favours bowlers in the past who had the benefit of uncovered pitches and matches would end sooner than they do now.

Earlier this week I used a wickets taken per match to demonstrate Sri Lanka’s bowling ineptitude. After some thought, I concluded that it would probably be the best way to compare different bowlers from different eras as well. Obviously it corrects for total matches played, but since the total number of wickets that can be taken in a match has never changed it ought not to favour any particular era over any other. Like any average, it will require a minimum number of matches played. I opted to use 15, which would be small enough not to unfairly exclude bowlers who played in the very early days of Test cricket, but high enough to not include those who have played for less than a few years in modern times. In my analysis I actually use 30 innings bowled, so as to exclude batsmen who have played dozens of matches, but only occasionally bowled. This is the most subjective aspect to the analysis and a case could probably be made that 15 is a bit low and 20 would be a better number. That would leave out George Lohmann, the man with the lowest bowling average of all time, and Fred ‘The Demon’ Spofforth, however, so I prefer 15 as the cutoff.

Since Statsguru does not (to the best of my knowledge) have a feature to display wickets per match and I do not wish to perform the analysis by hand for every bowler in history to have bowled at least 30 innings I decided to look at the top 35 bowlers in each of the three traditional stats above. The Statsguru screenshots for these are shown below. (Click to make them large enough to actually read.)

The 35 top wicket takers in cricket history

The 35 best career bowling averages
The 35 best career bowling strike rates

After accounting for overlap between the lists I was left with 68 bowlers from all eras. I should point out that this is not an exhaustive list of the top 68 bowlers in terms of wickets per match, only the 68 which seemed most likely to have a high ratio. After checking to see if I had missed anyone with a particularly high ratio, I added Clarrie Grimmet to the list. He was not amongst the top 35 in any of the original categories, but still took an average of 5.84 wickets per match. Ultimately I found 12 bowlers who had a career wickets per match ratio over five and they are presented in the table below.

Click to make legible

By this analysis Sydney Barnes is the greatest bowler to have ever played the game, having averaged exactly seven wickets per match over the course of his career. It’s probably not the first name to leap to most minds, but nor is it an unreasonable choice. He still holds the record for most wickets in a single series, having taken 49 South African wickets in four matches in 1913-14 and his 17-159 at the Wanderers in that series is second only to Laker’s 19-90 in terms of match analyses. Even by the traditional metrics 189 wickets at 16.43 apiece is very, very good. It’s also not a novel choice. As recently as 2009 David Frith in Cricinfo suggested that Barnes was ‘[p]robably the greatest bowler who ever measured out a run-up’.

I don’t think there could be many complaints about the other eleven on the list either. The only one of whom I had not previously heard was Charlie Blythe, though Bobby Peel (the cricketer not the Prime Minister) is best remembered for allegedly urinating on the pitch during a Roses match and being banned from playing for Yorkshire by Lord Hawke. (By all accounts he was a very good bowler though.) After those two there are all quite famous names from almost every era. The fact that Murali is third on the list and the only contemporary bowler to average better than six wickets per match is not surprising, given the number of wickets he took in his career. (And it goes a long way to explaining why Sri Lanka have struggled so badly recently.) The most notable omissions from that list are the great West Indian fast bowlers. They did not miss out by much it should be pointed out; all bar Courtney Walsh averaged better than four wickets per match. I suspect the reason for this is that the Windian bowlers tended to share the wickets around. With so many greats in the same team and only twenty wickets available none were able to stand out as much as they undoubtedly would have had they played separately.

I would like to be able to compile a longer list, but I cannot be sure of the accuracy as I go farther down. Without going through every single bowler to have ever bowled in more than 30 innings it is not possible to ensure that a longer list would actually be complete. Hopefully at some point wickets per match will be considered a proper statistic and be easily available on Statsguru.

Bradman Oration

I’ll be honest, I had never heard of the Bradman Oration until about a week ago when Channel Nine tried to sell me some tickets to it during the second Test. (And even then I wasn’t paying a lot of attention because it was about the tenth thing Channel Nine had hawked during the short series.) I didn’t buy the tickets they had and I was not sufficiently impressed to try to find any live stream. I’m kind of ruing that though. Rahul Dravid may not have quite matched Kumar Sangakkara at Lord’s last year, but he gave a very impressive speech.

The full text is well worth a read, but amongst other things he expressed his concerns about the future of Test cricket. He made the point that whilst Test cricket will always be the format by which cricketers are judged the lack of attendance will likely translate into poorer television veiwership and that the administrators ought to take greater care in ensuring that people are able and encouraged to watch matches. In particular he advocated day/night Test matches. It’s an idea about which I’ve been ambivalent in the past. Instinctively I don’t like it; I think that the change in conditions as night falls is too great. Also, it has been suggested that the pink ball does not swing, though I’m not sure how true that is. Most of all though, I am a traditionalist and simply don’t like the notion. I also accept the logic of playing D/N Tests though, and that is why I am still ambivalent about it. The logistical problems are not fatal, and they would certainly be adapted to. If it is what needs to happen to ensure crowds around the world than so be it, though I hope it does not happen in England where the crowds come anyway. I accept that to survive Test cricket may have to change somewhat, although I do not like the idea.

I wholeheartedly agree with Dravid’s suggestion that the international fixtures need revising though. No one except the administrators like a seven ODI series and a two Test series. It’s been a problem for ODIs for some time that bilateral series are effectively meaningless. It’s fun if India play Pakistan, as there is a rivalry there and the fans in those countries tend to prefer ODIs, but apart from that there is not a lot of draw. The results from a bilateral series affect the world ODI rankings, but since those don’t affect the World Cup they are not particularly relevant. Few would claim that Australia are the rightful fifty over World Champions because they top the ICC ODI rankings, but that is the only affect bilateral ODI series have. There is never a need to play seven irrelevant ODIs. There is seldom a need to play even five ODIs, in my opinion. I would prefer to see three match series with the remaining time freed up for a Test match. If boards are going to persist with long series (and I suspect that they are) the ICC need to make sure they have some sort of context, ideally by making qualification for the World Cup dependent on ranking. If only the top three or four teams automatically qualified for the World Cup and the rest had to play knockout matches against lesser nations it would give context to the bilateral series in the same way a Test Championship would give context to Test series.

It is very nice to see another current Test player so clearly and eloquently express the need for a better balance between the formats. With the weight of players fans and others in the media who have been making similar statements I am optimistic that the administrators may come around at some point.

Cricket Supporters’ Association survey

The Cricket Supporters’ Association have a survey out for those who watch English international and/or domestic cricket. It does not take long to complete and the results will be read by the ECB so it is well worth your time. The only criticism I would have of it is some of the multiple choice answers did not fully reflect the extent of my feelings on the issue. (E.g.: For the question about reducing the County Championship I could only answer ‘no’ and not ‘absolutely not under any circumstances’.) Still, it’s an excellent and important survey and is well worth the five minutes or so it will take to fill out.