I was away doing actual work for most of the afternoon, but since then I have caught up on the details of he Euro 2012 draw. England were drawn in group D, alongside Ukraine, Sweden and France. It’s a pretty good draw, I think, though all of the group matches will be in Ukraine and England’s base is in Poland. (Surely it would have made more sense to find accommodations after the fixtures were set?) In fact, only if England win the group (unlikely) will they play a match in Poland (the semi-final).
England’s campaign will begin on the 11th of June against France. It will be an opportunity for revenge for the defeat at Wembley last year and the rugby players’ defeat in New Zealand, but more likely it will be a chance for another humiliating loss to France. It will probably also be the match that decides the group winner, although neither Ukraine or Sweden will be walkovers. If England finish as runners up their quarter final opponents will likely be Spain, so there will be a strong incentive to win the group, though the desire to not play Germany didn’t help in South Africa. If England do win the group they will probably play Italy, though there’s an outside chance that they would play the Republic of Ireland. That would be fun, but pretty unlikely. Either way I don’t see England going to the semi-final. Even less likely than a semi-final berth for England is one for a side from Group A. The quarter-final arrangements mean that two of Poland, Greece, Russia and the Czech Republic will face two of Holland, Denmark, Germany and Portugal.
It would be remiss of me if I didn’t look at those teams, make some vague and only partly accurate appraisals of their skills and use that to predict the course of the tournament. I’ll revise, or at least add specifics to this closer to the tournament, but for now my prediction is:
Group A
Greece
Czech Republic (Could easily switch with Greece)
Russia
Poland
Group B
Holland
Germany (Holland v Germany is 13 June, can’t wait)
Portugal
Denmark
Group C
Spain (duh)
Ireland (I am required to include at least one upset)
Italy
Croatia
Group D
France (I’m realistic)
England
Sweden
Ukraine
QFs:
Germany def Greece
Holland def Czech Republic
Spain def England
France def Ireland (via handball)
SFs:
Spain def Germany (probably)
Holland def France (easily)
Final: See 2010 World Cup. (Though I’d prefer a Holland v Germany final. What a match that would be.)
One of the first things I noticed last night whilst watching the Gabba Test was the odd colouring of the seats. It’s something I remember from previous Ashes; they’re designed so as to give the impression of a full house even when there isn’t one. (One can infer then that there wasn’t a full house and that the seats don’t do a particularly good job of disguising that fact.) I think it’s pretty stupid, but it’s part of a much broader dislike of most Australian grounds.
Many Australian grounds are not owned by their clubs, but by the state government, and are used for multiple sports, most notably Australian rules football (AFL). As anyone who has tried to watch baseball in a multi-purpose stadium knows, this all but ruins the ground. The Gabba and the MCG are the worst. They’re just great monotone concrete bowls. There is no variation, no individuality, no character. Neither of them have individual stands anymore, they are just unbroken rings of seating. The pavilions in both grounds are little more than greenhouses set into the massive stands and the players emerge from tunnels. What is this, football? (Image from Channel Nine) Worst, they have to use drop in pitches because the AFL players don’t like being tackled on the hard wicket. (Apparently AFL players, like NFL players in the USA, are soft.) [Edited to add: I have been informed in the comments that this is also to protect the wicket from AFL players.] They aren’t cricket grounds anymore; they are AFL stadia in which cricket is sometimes played. The MCG at least has a history of being a dual use ground and at least it can mostly fill the seats during the cricket. (If Australia are playing well.) The Gabba has shown that it can’t and shouldn’t be used for cricket. The SCG isn’t immune either unfortunately; the gorgeous old pavilion is overshadowed by stands on either side.
The rot is spreading too. The Adelaide Oval is being renovated to increase capacity for the AFL and there are plans for the SCG to become more like the MCG. (Though that is at least for partly cricketing reasons, specifically the World Cup.) The WACA is the only ground that is not often used for AFL and it’s also the only ground with a sensible renovation plan.
I should point out that English grounds are not perfect. The Point at Old Trafford is a monstrosity which at the very least ought to have been placed opposite the pavilion instead of literally overshadowing it. And the Edgbaston renovations aren’t brilliant either. They are both an attempt to improve the grounds suitability for cricket though, which is their actual function. They aren’t built for football at the cost of cricket.
I’m very glad that Samit Patel declined to play in the IPL this year. He says that he needs to focus on Championship cricket to improve his chances of selection to the Test side. It would be easy for him to try to get some of the money on offer in the IPL with the knowledge that he is very unlikely to get a Test place anyway, but I am glad that he has chosen to fight for that slim chance all the same.
Right now his best chance of getting into the Test squad is probably as a second spinner for subcontinental tours. He’s probably still behind Monty Panesar for that spot and may soon be behind Simon Kerrigan, but he can bat better than either of them. It’s probably too late for him to get into this winter’s tours, but a full season next summer could boost his chances for selection against India, where he performed well in the recent ODIs. I’m not sure how much going to the IPL may have jeapordised those chances (it didn’t really hurt Eoin Morgan), but it would have caused him to miss almost half of the Championship. It probably can’t hurt for him to make his priorities clear to the England management though and a good season will ensure that his name is at least mentioned.
On paper this ought to be a one sided series. New Zealand have played varying degrees of poor cricket for years now and barely beat Zimbabwe. Meantime Australia are historically a pretty strong side. The recent contests haven’t been worth watching; New Zealand haven’t won a Test in Oz in 26 years. The fact that it may be any sort of a contest this year is a mark both of how far the Aussies have fallen and the extent to which injuries have taken their toll.
A lot of the build up to this series has focused on the Australian injury crisis, with five players pulling out before the first Test. The speculation about the replacements was curtailed, however, when the selectors named a squad of only 12. Peter Siddle was named leader of the attack, though since he is the only one of the pacemen to have ever played in a Test match he was rather the obvious choice. Nathan Lyon will probably also play (though Clarke said that if the wicket looked juicy he would be willing to play four quicks) meaning that one of James Pattinson, Mitchell Starc or Ben Cutting will probably be carrying the drinks at the Gabba. It will also mean that Chris Martin will have twice as many career wickets as the entire Australian attack combined.
There are still question marks about Australia’s batting as well. In the absence of Shane Watson, David Warner will open with Phil Hughes. Warner is in form, but unproven in first class cricket and Hughes is a bit rubbish. The middle order of Clarke, Ponting, Khawaja and Hussey is also a bit suspect. Ponting managed to get some runs against SA and now he’ll have a pretty weak Kiwi attack against which he can boost his credentials for the series against a pretty weak Indian attack. Clarke scored an incredible 151 in his first innings against South Africa and then managed just 15 for the rest of the series. He struggled in the Ashes last year as well, so it’s hard to be sure how he will do. Khawaja is still yet to really get going internationally, but he did score important runs against South Africa. Hussey looks like the weakest link of the chain. He was under considerable pressure before the last Ashes and responded by scoring buckets of runs in the first three Tests (and very few in the next two). With the dearth of Test cricket played by Australia since then he hasn’t had many more questions asked about his place in the side, but he scored just 60 runs against South Africa with a top score of 39. Combined with the last two Ashes Tests, his last eight innings against high quality bowling have yielded just 113 runs. Admittedly he won’t be up against strong bowling during the Australian summer (NZ and India) but it must still be a worry for the Australian selectors. If he doesn’t excel against the Kiwis I think they ought to look very hard at him being the one to miss out when Watson returns from injury.
New Zealand look like they will play a very similar side to the one that scraped to victory in Zimbabwe. Jesse Ryder and Tim Southee will almost certainly come into the side and both are probably good additions. Ryder certainly is, he is a very powerful batsman. Southee is in for Jeetan Patel and is good in that he is a seamer replacing an unneeded second spinner, though he isn’t necessarily a better bowler. The Kiwis still don’t have a lot in the way of batting however; Ryder and the captain Ross Taylor are the only two who average over 40. Their only world class bowler is Vettori, though a case could also be made for Chris Martin. Bracewell looks a decent talent, but has only played against Zimbabwe. Southee is essentially a county bowler.
Australia are weak and have serious questions about most of their squad, but those questions are unlikely to be asked by New Zealand. For the Kiwis to make the series close they will need virtually all of their players to step up. Their batsman in particular need to put pressure on the inexperienced Australian attack. The Australian batsmen have the motivation of knowing that one of them will be dropped when Watson returns and should not have undue difficulty facing the Kiwi attack, though it will be interesting to see how Bracewell fares. If the Gabba track is as flat as it was last year I think the first Test will be drawn, though I doubt either side will score 517-1. I think some life in the pitch will help Australia more than New Zealand though. The last thing the Aussies want is for their debutant bowlers to toil for hours on a flat surface and return 0-100. With a bit of encouragement from the wicket they could put some real pressure on a fairly brittle Kiwi batting order. Ultimately I think there will be enough in the pitch and the Kiwis will be sufficiently ill-disciplined that Australia will win both Tests.
Whilst I was distracted by Liverpool cruising past Chelsea and into the semi-final of the League Cup, the Royals signed free agent reliever Jonathan Broxton. It’s a positive move, whilst the bullpen was decent overall last year it wasn’t spectacular and it was also very young. Most of them were rookies, and Broxton will provide a good senior presence. Whether Broxton will be effective remains to be seen, of course. He represented the National League in the 2009 and 2010 All Star Games, but he missed most of last year with an elbow injury and was ineffective before that.
The Royals were very careful in the press release to specify that Soria would remain in the closer’s role. There have been suggestions before that Soria ought to move to the rotation, but they are ill-advised and rightfully ignored. Soria has been an exceptionally effective closer, but the fast that he has a range of pitches does not mean that he would do well in the rotation. A lot of the success of his pitches stems from the fact that he only goes an inning or two at most. Batsmen do not have time to adjust to him and he does not have to hold anything back for the later innings. Whilst it is true that the Royals need more starting pitching, Soria is still not the answer and I am very glad that the administrators recognise that. Hopefully we will hear no more on the matter. (I’m not optimistic.)
Broxton has postseason experience as a Dodger, but perhaps not the best. He has three saves, but the Dodgers were eliminated by the Phillies twice and Broxton had failures on both series. Our history of signing free agents means that I am bracing myself for Broxton to have a dreadful season, but I think that the move itself is a good one.
Later today Liverpool will play at Stamford Bridge for the second time in fewer than ten days, this time for the League Cup quarter final. It’s an odd quirk of scheduling, but such are the possibilities of a random draw. More irritating is the fact that we have not had a single home tie in the competition. Still, I think we will win.
Liverpool are currently playing their best football this season. After throwing away winning positions earlier in the season we rallied late to beat Chelsea once and would have beat City were it not for the brilliance of Joe Hart. Chelsea, meanwhile look poor. Yes, they beat Wolves 3-0 on Saturday, but that was Wolves. It’s hardly indicative of a return to prominence. Last Wednesday they conceded a stoppage time winner against Leverkusen after being 1-0 in front at one stage. Chelsea have one advantage in that they had an extra day to rest, having played on Saturday. It will make things more difficult for the Reds, but we have a deep squad and should field a strong XI regardless. Historically, Chelsea have had a slight edge in this competition, although the Reds have dominated the recent encounters in the league. The Liverpool website has a great overview of the stats.
The fact that Liverpool have had only one day in which to recuperate means that the side to face Chelsea is difficult to predict. Carragher has been on the bench for the last couple of matches, but has not played in either so he might be an option. Sebastian Coates and Martin Kelly are also good options at the back, though neither have played a lot of first XI football this season. Carroll presumably has a decent chance to start as he will be rested, as is Maxi Rodriguez. Rodriguez, of course, scored last week at Stamford Bridge. I don’t know if Craig Bellamy is ready to return yet, but if he is he is probably a near automatic selection. It’s harder to say who might make way for those players, as that will mostly depend on fitness. It’s probably safe to assume that Reina and Suarez will both start though. Johnson, with his recent injury woes, might be one to miss out, but he scored the winner last time we were at Stamford Bridge and looked in good form on Sunday. It won’t be an ideal XI, and those who played on Sunday will be tired, but I think they will do enough to beat a Chelsea side that have not looked up for it at times this season. I’m predicting another 2-1 win, but after extra time.
The 2012 county fixtures have finally been announced! And it was roughly five minutes before I was vaguely cross about them. England play six Tests next summer and Lancashire are playing a Championship match during every one of them. It’s not too bad during the series against the West Indies; Lancashire are actually playing every week during that time so there is no real way to avoid conflict. But, as usual, during the midsummer gap between Test matches Lancs are only playing limited overs cricket. It’s quite frustrating. To make matters worse, during the South Africa series Lancashire aren’t playing in the gaps between the Test matches, only during the Tests themselves! And, as we already knew, our curtain raiser falls during the first Test in Sri Lanka. There is some improvement though; this year none of the matches completely overlap with a Test. There is always at least one day that does not.
For most of the counties the season starts the week after the curtain raiser. That gives a start date of 5 April, the earliest ever for the County Championship. Lancashire don’t start until the next week, playing a rematch of last season’s opener against Sussex at Aigburth. Lancs then play a match a week for the next nine weeks, meaning that once again the season will be half over by the beginning of June. Warwickshire will try to exact a measure of revenge for last season early, as they come to Aigburth on 19 April. (21 April will be a long day for me. It’s the third day of the match against Warwickshire, but also on the calendar are Bath v London Irish, Liverpool v West Brom and Royals v Blue Jays.) The first two home matches are at Aigburth and the first match at Old Trafford is against Notts on 2 May. Newly promoted Middlesex come to Liverpool on 23 May, but unfortunately our trip to Lord’s isn’t until the penultimate round of matches on 4 September. The last match of the season is at Old Trafford against Surrey, starting 11 September. We won’t be visiting the Oval this year; our match in Surrey will be at Guildford.
Overall it’s roughly what I expected. (By now I just assume that the ECB will schedule Tests at the same time as Championship matches.) The interest lies in the details, of course, and every year I enjoy going over the fixtures. The Christmas decorations are up and it is below freezing outside, but spring feels just a bit closer now.
The BBC Sports Personality of the Year shortlist has been announced and both Strauss and Cook are in the running for the award. I’m hoping one of them wins, of course. I’m leaning toward Cook, he had the better year on the field. (Though since it’s the sports personality award I fail to see how Graeme Swann, or at least Jimmy Anderson, doesn’t win every single year. It should at least go to someone with a Twitter account.) The full list is on the BBC website. It’s been noted that it is not a particularly diverse list, there are no women on it at all this year. There also aren’t any footballers or rugby players in the running, though that’s less surprising given the state of the national teams.
There is also an award for team of the year, which must surely either go to the England cricket team or to Lancashire. I’d give it to Lancs. We all knew England were good at the start of the year, if not that they were so good as to beat India 4-0. No one expected Lancashire to win the County Championship though; some even predicted we would be relegated! We had a team comprised almost entirely of homegrown talent, mostly very young and inexperienced. Lancashire were a team in that they were greater than the sum of their parts this year. To an extent this was also true of England, but the national side had the services of the second best fast bowler in the world a lot more often than the Red Rose. I think Lancashire are clearly the most deserving team.
MS Dhoni expressed a desire the other day for Indian pitches to turn from the first day. It’s easy to be cynical about it, (‘It’s only because he hasn’t got any seamers’ e.g.) but I quite agree. If there is nothing in the pitch for the bowlers at all we get lifeless, boring tracks. These can turn into exciting matches as we saw at Mumbai, but only very seldom and only when the bowlers find some help late in the match. The vast majority of cases turn into stupefyingly boring draws, which are bad for everyone in the long term. It’s bad for the bowlers for obvious reasons and it’s bad for the administrators who face a declining interest. It’s also problematic for batsmen; for one thing it cheapens batting records, but also because they then do not know how to play when the ball is doing a bit.
We are seeing more and more instances of batsmen falling cheaply when they play on a good track. The most spectacular was Australia’s 47 all out at Cape Town, but I think the more damming example was in England last year. Rahul Dravid was the only one to succeed and he is one of the only batmen in the Indian order who plays with a good technique. On the other side of the coin was Virender Sehwag. On the subcontinent, where there is no venom in the new ball, Sehwag can attack with impunity and take the match away from the opposition. (As we saw in Chennai in 2008.) When he tried to do the same in England, however, he picked up a king pair. Sehwag is the best example, but few of the Indian batsman displayed the ability to play the moving ball. To an extent it isn’t their fault; many of them had never had an opportunity to play on a seaming pitch before.
Of course, India’s travails in England were against the swinging/seaming ball. Dhoni would like to see the ball spin, but I think it’s still fair. It’s very hard to get the ball to seam or swing in India, the conditions simply aren’t suited for it, so having the ball turn from the start is the next best thing. However it is achieved, it is very important for the bowlers to have some help throughout the match and I quite agree with Dhoni’s suggestion.
There’s really never been any doubt that Joe Hart is the best goalkeeper in England, but he demonstrated that fact again today anyway. Liverpool could have very easily won 4-1 were it not for Hart; after a sluggish start Liverpool dominated the last hour of the match and forced Hart into no fewer than three brilliant saves. It wasn’t a particularly good match for City otherwise. They looked tired and Balotelli, coming on as a sub, needed only 19 minutes to pick up two yellow cards.
I’m not sure if it was a good result for Liverpool or not. On the one hand the Reds dominated much of the game, and for all the brilliant saves by Hart there were a couple of chances that were spurned. With City down to ten over the last ten minutes there was a clear advantage. Liverpool played well enough to win, certainly. At the same time, City are table toppers for a good reason and they have only failed to win one match this season. It certainly wasn’t the same style of frustrating draw that characterised the previous three home matches. I think I would have taken a draw at the start of the match, but coming so close to winning against the top of the table is agonising. It is more reason for optimism ahead of the League Cup match against Chelsea though.
Defensive Indifference 